Extreme precipitation patterns in the Asia–Pacific region and its correlation with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Abstract

In the Asia–Pacific region (APR), extreme precipitation is one of the most critical climate stressors, affecting 60% of the population and adding pressure to governance, economic, environmental, and public health challenges. In this study, we analyzed extreme precipitation spatiotemporal trends in APR using 11 different indices and revealed the dominant factors governing precipitation amount by attributing its variability to precipitation frequency and intensity. We further investigated how these extreme precipitation indices are influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at a seasonal scale. The analysis covered 465 ERA5 (the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) study locations over eight countries and regions during 1990–2019. Results revealed a general decrease indicated by the extreme precipitation indices (e.g., the annual total amount of wet-day precipitation, average intensity of wet-day precipitation), particularly in central-eastern China, Bangladesh, eastern India, Peninsular Malaysia and Indonesia. We observed that the seasonal variability of the amount of wet-day precipitation in most locations in China and India are dominated by precipitation intensity in June–August (JJA), and by precipitation frequency in December–February (DJF). Locations in Malaysia and Indonesia are mostly dominated by precipitation intensity in March–May (MAM) and DJF. During ENSO positive phase, significant negative anomalies in seasonal precipitation indices (amount of wet-day precipitation, number of wet days and intensity of wet-day precipitation) were observed in Indonesia, while opposite results were observed for ENSO negative phase. These findings revealing patterns and drivers for extreme precipitation in APR may inform climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies in the study region.

Comment on esd-2024-15

“…The spatiotemporal evolution of extreme precipitation in the Greater Antilles was investigated by analyzing the interannual variability of extreme precipitation index anomalies over a long period and the change in percentage variations in extreme precipitation indices at decadal timescales. To characterize the percentage variations, we chose the (Pij) index, which is already used in the study (An et al, 2023), whose equation is presented hereafter.…”

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Rainfall Thresholds of Geological Landslide Disasters in ASEAN Countries

“…These countries exhibit significant disparities in rainfall, topography, vegetation, and economic development levels. The ground-based rainfall data within the ASEAN countries is low quality with significant missing data [20]. Additionally, there is a dearth of comprehensive research and data on historical landslide events.…”