Extreme rainfall and its impacts in the Brazilian Minas Gerais state in January 2020: Can we blame climate change?

Abstract

In January 2020, an extreme precipitation event occurred over southeast Brazil, with the epicentre in Minas Gerais state. Although extreme rainfall frequently occurs in this region during the wet season, this event led to the death of 56 people, drove thousands of residents into homelessness, and incurred millions of Brazilian Reais (BRL) in financial loss through the cascading effects of flooding and landslides. The main question that arises is: To what extent can we blame climate change? With this question in mind, our aim was to assess the socioeconomic impacts of this event and whether and how much of it can be attributed to human-induced climate change. Our findings suggest that human-induced climate change made this event >70% more likely to occur. We estimate that >90,000 people became temporarily homeless, and at least BRL 1.3 billion (USD 240 million) was lost in public and private sectors, of which 41% can be attributed to human-induced climate change. This assessment brings new insights about the necessity and urgency of taking action on climate change, because it is already effectively impacting our society in the southeast Brazil region. Despite its dreadful impacts on society, an event with this magnitude was assessed to be quite common (return period of ∼4 years). This calls for immediate improvements on strategic planning focused on mitigation and adaptation.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Environmental and biological correlates of migration phenology of tropical leaf‐litter anurans

“…Moreover, extreme rainfall events and prolonged droughts observed in recent years in southeastern Brazil (Dalagnol et al. 2021; Geirinhas et al. 2021) could also lead to reduced survival of pond‐breeding anurans, particularly those using ephemeral ponds and with reduced reproductive season.…”

“…In conclusion, we have shown that sex-related differences in responses to environmental cues can exacerbate phenological shifts in amphibian migrations as climate change intensifies in the region, and potentially impact the mating success of forestdependent pond-breeding species. Moreover, extreme rainfall events and prolonged droughts observed in recent years in southeastern Brazil (Dalagnol et al 2021;Geirinhas et al 2021) could also lead to reduced survival of pond-breeding anurans, particularly those using ephemeral ponds and with reduced reproductive season.…”

The climate science for service partnership Brazil

“…For example, in January 2020, extreme rainfall and resulting flood and landslides in Minas Gerais state in Southeast Brazil led to the death of 56 people, and an estimated 90,000 people became temporarily homeless. Dalagnol et al (2021) estimate this event to be more than 70% more likely due to human-induced climate change.…”

Attributing the 2015/2016 Amazon basin drought to anthropogenic influence

“…The threshold used to define the drought event was defined as the average of the standardized seasonal precipitation of the two lowest standardized seasonal precipitation values from CHIRPS prior to 2015/2016 which were 1982/1983 and 1991/1992. This approach avoids overselection for the observed threshold and was based on the methods used by Dalagnol et al (2021) and de Abreu et al (2019). We also tested the sensibility of the RR to threshold values.…”