Extremist Outbidding in Ethnic Party Systems is Not Inevitable: Tribune Parties in Northern Ireland

Abstract

The ethnic outbidding thesis predicts centrifugal polarisation in ethnically divided party systems. We argue instead that the incentives of power‐sharing institutions can encourage the development of electoral strategies based on ‘ethnic tribune appeals’ in which parties combine robust ethnic identity representation with increased pragmatism over resource allocation. We test these arguments in Northern Ireland and show that though evidence of direct vote switching from moderate parties to ostensibly ‘extreme’ parties is prima facie consistent with the outbidding thesis, attitudinal convergence between the nationalist and unionist communities on the main political issues is not. The recent electoral success of the DUP and Sinn Féin can instead be explained by these parties' ‘ethnic tribune’ appeals. Many voters simultaneously endorse peace, prosperity and (increasingly) power sharing but also want the strongest voice to protect their ethnonational interests. Identity voting for ethnic tribune parties implies a degree of resolve in advocating ethnic group interests, but does not entail the increased polarisation implied by outbidding models. Like their voters, ethnic tribune parties can be simultaneously pragmatic (with regard to resources) and intransigent (with regard to identity), so that despite appearances to the contrary, the power‐sharing institutions in Northern Ireland incentivise centripetal dynamics that inhibit outbidding.

The Progressive Unionist Party of Northern Ireland: A Left-Wing Voice in an Ethnically Divided Society

“…In electoral terms the PUP has made little headway (see Figure 1 for electoral performance). This is indicative of other moderate parties operating in societies divided by ethnic cleavages and prone to centrifugal tendencies at the polls (see Mitchell et al. 2009).…”

“…By and large they have been able to mitigate this eventuality by maintaining a hard‐line stance on issues such as security, partition and the defeat of the IRA. These lines of competition make moderation increasingly difficult but not impossible (Mitchell et al. 2009).…”

Why accommodate minorities asymmetrically? A theory of ideological authority insulation

“…The level of regional authority can have an effect on the government's decisions for reform. Higher levels of regional authority can either indicate no further need for reform or can cause dynamics of outbidding with rising demand for more (Rabushka & Shepsle 1972;Mitchell et al 2009). We measure the level of authority with the lagged level of the Regional Authority Index (Hooghe et al 2016).…”

The Party Politics of Post-Devolution Identity in Northern Ireland

“…These changes allowed the DUP and Sinn Féin to align themselves closely to the views of median voters in their respective ethnic blocs, facilitating victory over the UUP and SDLP respectively and making them the dominant players in the Northern Ireland government (Gormley‐Heenan and Mac Ginty ; Mitchell et al. ). Whilst ethnic outbidding exerts a strong pull over parties and their electoral strategies, attempts to explore more expansive visions of political and national identity within Northern Ireland have been more evident in recent years.…”