Facilitating decision-making in agriculture by using a system of models

Abstract

This article presents a deterministic farm-level model developed to link to an existing partial equilibrium sector-level model of the grain and livestock sectors of South Africa. The objective is to create a linked system of models consisting of a sector-and farm-level model with the capability to analyse the likely effects of changes in policies and markets at both the sector and representative farm level in South Africa. A representative farm in the Free State Province is used to validate the farm-level model. The farm-level model is used to simulate a baseline as well as two scenarios of the representative farm for the period 2003 to 2010. Results indicate that the farm-level model simulates the representative farm rather accurately compared to historical data. The baseline and scenario results indicate that the linked system of models can be useful for policy and business decision-makers to analyse the impact of change in policies and markets at both the sector-and farm level.

Sustainable Agricultural Development: Knowledge‐based Decision Support

“…The format of mathematical programming, sometimes known as process analysis or activity analysis, is extremely suitable for agriculture. Recently, the importance of modelling and optimization-based decision support has significantly increased in agriculture (Shim et al 2002;Pranevičius and Kurlavičius 2003;Strauss et al 2008). Optimal or nearly optimal solutions provide relevant information, employed to resolve complex agricultural and environmental decision problems (Makowski et al 2001;Khabirov and Nikitina 2007).…”