Facing the uncertainty of CO2 storage capacity in China by developing different storage scenarios

Abstract

China is very active in the research and development of CO 2 capture and storage technologies (CCS). However, existing estimates for CO 2 storage capacity are very uncertain. This uncertainty is due to limited geological knowledge, a lack of large-scale research on CO 2 injection, and different assessment approaches and parameter settings.Hence storage scenarios represent a method that can be used by policy makers to demonstrate the range of possible storage capacity developments, to help interpret uncertain results and to identify the limitations of existing assessments. In this paper, three storage scenarios are developed for China by evaluating China-wide studies supplemented with more detailed site-and basin-specific assessments. It is estimated that the greatest storage potential can be found in deep saline aquifers. Oil and gas fields may also be used. Coal seams are only included in the highest storage scenario. In total, the scenarios presented demonstrate that China has an effective storage capacity of between 65 and 1,551 Gt of CO 2 . Furthermore, the authors emphasise a need for action to harmonise storage capacity assessment approaches due to the uncertainties involved in the capacity assessments analysed in this study. Highlights:• China's CO 2 storage capacity varies considerably in existing estimates.• Assumptions must be transparent to enable all stakeholders to evaluate the results.• The storage scenarios yield a range between the maximum and minimum storage capacity.• Storage scenarios S1-S3 for China yield a capacity of 1,551, 402 and 65 Gt of CO 2 .

Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China’s power sector – An integrated assessment

“…Most of the analysed publications on CCS in China take sufficient storage potential for granted or refer to literature sources that suggest a large effective storage capacity [32]. In contrast, the present analysis shows the high uncertainty inherent in existing storage capacity assessments, thus confirming the lack of knowledge, also stated in [11,25].…”

“…The resulting storage scenarios (S1-S3) represent a range between a high and a low estimate of China's storage potential. For the detailed methodology and the results of this step, the authors refer to [32].…”

“…An analysis of all known country-wide studies that analysed the CO 2 storage potential in China [34,[42][43][44][45] revealed a huge range of CO 2 storage capacity from 32 to 3,090 Gt, covering oil and gas fields, saline aquifers and coal seams [32]. This capacity has to be classified as theoretical on the techno-economic resource-reserve pyramid [6], since no efficiency factors were applied.…”

“…This capacity has to be classified as theoretical on the techno-economic resource-reserve pyramid [6], since no efficiency factors were applied. In order to allow for the prevailing uncertainties, we developed three storage scenarios [32] (Table 1). These are based on existing country-wide results cross-checked with more basin-and site-specific study results to detect the most appropriate theoretical storage capacity.…”

How Much CO2 Emissions Can Be Reduced in China’s Heating Industry

“…Hao et al [18] adopted scenario analysis to analyze energy consumption and carbon emissions from passenger transport vehicles in China. Samuel et al [19] studied the uncertainty analysis of CO 2 storage capacity for different methods under three storage scenarios in China. Ajay et al [20] assessed the development of China's future energy system by scenario analysis for China's CO 2 emissions in 2050.…”