Factors Influencing the Size and Duration of School Varicella Outbreaks in Shanghai, China, in the Era of Voluntary Single-Dose Vaccination

Wu, Qiangsong; Zhang, Linwei; Liu, Jingyi; Chen, Yuanfang; Zhou, Qi; Xuan, Zeliang; Hu, Yi

doi:10.1093/ofid/ofz410

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Considering factors like security, simplicity and persistence of immunity, the second dose should be given to an older group. Since varicella frequently breaks out in the kindergarten and primary schools [ 26 ], it is reasonable to come to this conclusion.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Dynamic Compartmental Model to Explore the Optimal Strategy of Varicella Vaccination: An Epidemiological Study in Jiangsu Province, China

et al. 2022

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Varicella (chickenpox) is highly contagious among children and frequently breaks out in schools. In this study, we developed a dynamic compartment model to explore the optimal schedule for varicella vaccination in Jiangsu Province, China. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model was proposed to simulate the transmission of varicella in different age groups. The basic reproduction number was computed by the kinetic model, and the impact of three prevention factors was assessed through the global sensitivity analysis. Finally, the effect of various vaccination scenarios was qualitatively evaluated by numerical simulation. The estimated basic reproduction number was 1.831 ± 0.078, and the greatest contributor was the 5–10 year-old group (0.747 ± 0.042, 40.80%). Sensitivity analysis indicated that there was a strong negative correlation between the second dose vaccination coverage rate and basic reproduction number. In addition, we qualitatively found that the incidence would significantly decrease as the second dose vaccine coverage expands. The results suggest that two-dose varicella vaccination should be mandatory, and the optimal age of second dose vaccination is the 5–10 year-old group. Optimal vaccination time, wide vaccine coverage along with other measures, could enhance the effectiveness of prevention and control of varicella in China.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Dynamic Compartmental Model to Explore the Optimal Strategy of Varicella Vaccination: An Epidemiological Study in Jiangsu Province, China

et al. 2022

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“…Since 2006, China has been monitoring varicella outbreaks through a passive surveillance system ( 3 ). Previous studies conducted in various districts of China have shown that varicella outbreaks are the most commonly reported vaccine-preventable infectious disease outbreaks, leading to disruptions in school activities and putting a burden on health departments for investigation and control measures ( 4 – 5 ). In this study, we aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics of varicella outbreaks in China from 2006 to 2022 in order to provide evidence for the development of strategies and policies for varicella outbreak prevention and control.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella Outbreaks — China, 2006–2022

Wang,

Li,

You

et al. 2023

China CDC Weekly

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Introduction Varicella outbreaks significantly disrupt schools and other child-centered institutions. This study aimed to identify patterns and epidemiological features of varicella outbreaks in China from 2006 to 2022. Methods Data were extracted from outbreak reports submitted to the Public Health Emergency Reporting Management Information System within the specified timeframe. Analytical methods included Spearman correlation tests and the Mann-Kendall trend tests, conducted using R software to analyze and summarize reported data. Additionally, statistical analyses of trends and epidemiological characteristics were performed using SPSS software. Results Between 2006 and 2022, a total of 11,990 varicella outbreaks were reported in China, resulting in 354,082 cases. The attack rates showed a decreasing trend over the years (Z=−4.49, P <0.05). These outbreaks occurred in two peaks annually. The eastern region accounted for the highest number of outbreaks (31.53%), followed by the southwestern (24.22%) and southern (17.93%) regions. Varicella outbreaks were most common in elementary schools. Most of the outbreaks (60.43%) were classified as Grade IV (general) severity, with 86.41% of the outbreaks having 10–49 cases. The median and inter-quartile ranges (IQR) of the duration of outbreaks, response time, and case counts were 21 (10, 39) days, 4 (0, 12) days, and 23 (16, 35) cases, respectively. These variables showed a positive correlation ( P <0.001). Conclusions Varicella outbreaks exhibited fluctuating trends, initially decreasing until 2012, followed by an increase, reaching the highest peak in 2018–2019. Continual monitoring of varicella epidemiology is necessary to assess the burden of the disease and formulate evidence-based strategies and policies for its prevention and control.

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Cost-Effectiveness of Varicella Vaccination for 1–4-Year-Olds in Shanghai, China

Guan,

Li,

Huang

et al. 2025

American Journal of Preventive Medicine

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Factors Influencing the Size and Duration of School Varicella Outbreaks in Shanghai, China, in the Era of Voluntary Single-Dose Vaccination

Cited by 5 publications

References 12 publications

A Dynamic Compartmental Model to Explore the Optimal Strategy of Varicella Vaccination: An Epidemiological Study in Jiangsu Province, China

A Dynamic Compartmental Model to Explore the Optimal Strategy of Varicella Vaccination: An Epidemiological Study in Jiangsu Province, China

Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella Outbreaks — China, 2006–2022

Cost-Effectiveness of Varicella Vaccination for 1–4-Year-Olds in Shanghai, China

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