Failed coups, democratization, and authoritarian entrenchment: Opening up or digging in?

Powell, Jonathan; Chacha, Mwita; Smith, Gary

doi:10.1093/afraf/ady050

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Coups are typically followed by continued or rebirthed authoritarianism. Coups are often attempted specifically to stop in-progress transitions and frequently lead to an array of worsening dynamics in the affected polity (e.g., Powell, Chacha, & Smith, 2018). However, among postcoup outcomes is perhaps a counterintuitive phenomenon all too often obscured—that coups can also act as windows of opportunity for democracy, or perhaps even direct catalysts.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Institutional Arsenals for Democracy? The Postcoup Effects of Conscript Militaries

Vasquez

Powell

2019

Armed Forces & Society

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Recent years have seen increased study of military coups. While this generally emphasizes coups as a dependent variable, there is a growing debate as to how coups influence a country’s long-term political trajectory. This literature includes a handful of studies that claim coups against authoritarian regimes can act for the public good and provide a boost to the state’s democratization prospects. Causal mechanisms have included factors such as aid conditionality, economic interdependence, and foreign pressure more generally. We argue that this growing body of work can benefit from increased attention given to those who carry out coups: the armed forces. Specifically, we argue that coups reflecting a larger societal interest, be it the removal of a dictator or the desire for democracy after a dictator’s ouster, are more likely undertaken by conscript armies. A cross-national exploration of over 170 coups suggests that conscript militaries are in fact significantly more likely to oversee democratic transitions following military coups. Beyond contributing to a broader literature on civil–military relations, the article points to important policy implications for developing nations.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Institutional Arsenals for Democracy? The Postcoup Effects of Conscript Militaries

Vasquez

Powell

2019

Armed Forces & Society

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“…The daunting image of Africa notwithstanding, some African countries including Seychelles, Kenya, Cameroon, Eswatini, Senegal, Morocco, and Mozambique have never experienced coups. Powell et al (2019) aver that the success rate of coup attempts in the past decade are far higher than those of previous decades, even though coups are becoming less frequent in recent times. To this end, the African Union in May 2022 held an extraordinary summit to discuss the way forward in ending coups in the continent, and so did leaders of the Economic Community of West African States convened, all to end the cycle of unconstitutional replacement of governments.…”

Section: Coup D'états In Africa: Reflectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Africa’s Fledgling Democratization Process Once More at the Crossroads: Continental Security and International Relations Implications

2023

IAGS

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Africa has had a chequered constitutional history, and current happenings have further dented the continent's democratic credentials as the military are forcefully terminating fledgling democracies. The consequences have been anything but damming, regarding the socio-politico-economic development of such countries and adjoining neighboring countries. Moreover, under the circumstances, continental security is once more under threat with dire international relations implications for countries that involve in constitutional interruptions. This work investigates the factors that account for the current upsurge of Coup D'états in some African countries and their impact on continental security. The study adopts a sequential exploratory mixed method approach involving 30 participants (qualitative) in Ghana and 433 respondents (quantitative) across the continent of Africa administered through goggle. The findings on the main showed that, bad governance among a mirage of factors such as economic challenges, have often precipitated violent coups in Africa. The paper argues that coups can be averted when constitutional leaders practice good governance and adhere to human rights, inter alia.

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“…Furthermore, a qualitative re-evaluation of cases in Africa suggests that the positive effect of failed coups on democratization may be due to false positives in cross-national data. Failed coups may bolster a state's pre-coup political trajectory, spurring democratization in some contexts or further autocratization in others (Powell, Chacha, and Smith 2018, 240) 4…”

Section: Extant Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Rush to Personalize: Power Concentration after Failed Coups in Dictatorships

Timoneda

Escribà‐Folch

Chin

2023

Brit. J. Polit. Sci.

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How do failed coups influence power personalization in dictatorships? While scholars have studied the mechanisms of personalism in dictatorships in detail, little attention has been paid to the timing and determinants of surges in personalism levels. In this article, we propose that personalism can evolve non-linearly, and show that large, quite rapid increases in personalization by dictators occur after a failed coup attempt. The logic is that failed coups are information-revealing events that provide the dictator with strong motives and ample opportunities to accumulate power. The leader uses this window of opportunity to rapidly consolidate his power at the expense of the ruling coalition. We test the theory using time-series, cross-sectional data on dictatorships in 114 countries in the period between 1946 and 2010. Two placebo tests indicate that disruptive events by regime outsiders – failed assassination attempts and civil war onsets – do not promote the rush to personalize.

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Failed coups, democratization, and authoritarian entrenchment: Opening up or digging in?

Cited by 10 publications

References 12 publications

Institutional Arsenals for Democracy? The Postcoup Effects of Conscript Militaries

Institutional Arsenals for Democracy? The Postcoup Effects of Conscript Militaries

Africa’s Fledgling Democratization Process Once More at the Crossroads: Continental Security and International Relations Implications

The Rush to Personalize: Power Concentration after Failed Coups in Dictatorships

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