Failing the formative phase: The global diffusion of nuclear power is limited by national markets

Brutschin, Elina; Cherp, Aleh; Jewell, Jessica

doi:10.1016/j.erss.2021.102221

Cited by 30 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…This is not surprising, given that there are not very many cases where coal phaseout has been observed and, additionally, it is not very clear how countries in the different stages of coal phaseout (Nacke et al, 2022) should be compared. The concept of state capacity is also difficult to operationalize (Savoia & Sen, 2015) and many past analyses of technologies to date have used GDP per capita as a proxy for state capacity (Brutschin et al, 2021;Jewell et al, 2019). We address the methodological issues pertaining to quantitative analysis and to the results in Section 3.1 and we discuss the approach to, and results of, the qualitative analysis in Section 3.2.…”

Section: Prospects Of Coal Phaseout and The Role Of State Capacitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout

Brutschin

Schenuit

Ruijven

et al. 2022

PaG

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To reach the mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement, many countries will have to phase out their coal power plants prematurely, i.e., before the end of their normal lifetimes, which will lead quite possibly to significant stranded assets. This could present a major challenge, particularly for many of the rapidly developing countries whose electricity demand is growing and which are currently expanding their coal fleets. Recent research shows that countries with aging power plants and decreasing coal consumption are more inclined to phase out coal, but little is known about where, why, and how coal power plants are being prematurely retired. In the context of the hybrid Paris Agreement, attention is increasingly shifting to domestic mitigation capacities and, alongside this—given the vested interests involved in different sectors—to state capacity to implement the transformations required to achieve deep decarbonization. In this article, we aim to study those capacities in the context of coal phaseout. We use a recent and comprehensive global dataset on coal power plants and employ a mixed-methods research design to (a) identify general emerging patterns with respect to premature coal fleet retirement, and (b) derive stylized types of political strategies to prematurely retire coal power plants. We find state capacity to be a robust predictor of general and premature coal retirement, and we identify three main strategies that countries have used to date to prematurely retire coal: (a) rein-in using top-down regulatory enforcement of environmental, climate, or other regulations that affect the operating licenses of coal plants; (b) buy-out or provision of compensation to companies and regions to appease vested interests; and (c) crowd out where accelerating market and price dynamics in the power sector crowd out coal. We propose that future research should explore more systematically the kinds of strategy that might be most promising in the regions and countries needing to rapidly phase out coal, taking into account their political structures, and also the implications that such strategies might have for global mitigation efforts.

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Section: Prospects Of Coal Phaseout and The Role Of State Capacitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout

Brutschin

Schenuit

Ruijven

et al. 2022

PaG

Self Cite

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“…Economic capacity can also be a key enabler of climate mitigation action. A systematic and robust relationship has been identified between GDP per capita and the deployment of new technologies-or the phasing-out of old ones (Aguirre & Ibikunle, 2014;Brutschin, Cherp, et al, 2021;Halkos, 2013;Jewell et al, 2019). Achieving ambitious climate mitigation goals will also require major domestic and foreign investments in low-carbon technologies.…”

Section: Economic Capabilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Technological capacity will be crucial in particular for the mitigation of emissions in the energy sector and the industrial sector. Historically, new energy technologies were often developed in OECD countries and subsequently diffused to other regions (Brutschin, Cherp, et al, 2021;Cherp et al, in press), and countries that were able to support new technologies through R&D were able to achieve higher shares of renewable energy (Aklin & Urpelainen, 2013). Substantial technological resources have been shown to be necessary, especially for the scaling up of complex and "lumpy" technologies, such as nuclear energy technologies Wilson et al, 2020).…”

Section: Technological Capabilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Capacity can be operationalized through different types of capabilities. We argue that in the context of climate policy, three types of capabilities play a fundamental role in mitigation: governance capabilities, which refer to the general ability of the state to implement goals and policies (Cingolani, 2013); economic capabilities, which refer to the economic resources and market environment that can enable investments in the transition; and technological capabilities, that can enable technological innovation and the diffusion of low-carbon technologies (Brutschin, Cherp, et al, 2021;Eskander & Fankhauser, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Emissions Lock-in, Capacity, and Public Opinion: How Insights From Political Science Can Inform Climate Modeling Efforts

Pianta

Brutschin

2022

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The implementation of ambitious climate policies consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement is fundamentally influenced by political dynamics. Yet, thus far, climate mitigation pathways developed by integrated assessment models (IAMs) have devoted limited attention to the political drivers of climate policymaking. Bringing together insights from the political science and socio-technical transitions literature, we summarize evidence on how emissions lock-in, capacity, and public opinion can shape climate policy ambition. We employ a set of indicators to describe how these three factors vary across countries and regions, highlighting context-specific challenges and enablers of climate policy ambition. We outline existing studies that incorporate political factors in IAMs and propose a framework to employ empirical data to build climate mitigation scenarios that incorporate political dynamics. Our findings show that there is substantial heterogeneity in key political drivers of climate policy ambition within IAM regions, calling for a more disaggregated regional grouping within models. Importantly, we highlight that the political challenges and enablers of climate policy ambition considerably vary across regions, suggesting that future modeling efforts incorporating political dynamics can significantly increase the realism of IAM scenarios.

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“…While we cannot discount the possibility of using nuclear power for weapons, no current data support this probability. In fact, a study conducted by Brutschin et al [78] revealed that the pursuit of nuclear weapons only has a minor role in a country's decision to pursue nuclear technology.…”

Section: Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perspectives on the Barriers to Nuclear Power Generation in the Philippines: Prospects for Directions in Energy Research in the Global South

et al. 2022

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This paper offers a discussion on the social dimensions of the barriers to nuclear power generation in the country. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the literature by identifying the barriers to nuclear power generation in the Philippines and offering perspectives on the social relevance of potentially adding nuclear sources to the country’s energy mix. Given the contemporary relevance of the energy transitions globally, this work builds on the available sources over the past decade concerning nuclear energy technology in the Philippines and provides further discussions on the diverse barriers to the country’s energy transition pathway. Findings present barriers related to politics, policy, infrastructure, technical capacities, environment and information. The differences in priorities and values concerning nuclear energy reflect that the barriers to nuclear energy generation in the Philippines are social as much as technical. Based on the findings and descriptions of the current discussions on Philippine energy generation, this work provides some key points for consideration in order to deploy nuclear power plants in the country. These recommendations, however, are not definitive measures and are still subject to local conditions that may arise. This study hopes to be instructive to other countries in terms of further reflecting on the social dimensions of the barriers to nuclear energy generation.

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Failing the formative phase: The global diffusion of nuclear power is limited by national markets

Cited by 30 publications

References 76 publications

Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout

Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout

Emissions Lock-in, Capacity, and Public Opinion: How Insights From Political Science Can Inform Climate Modeling Efforts

Perspectives on the Barriers to Nuclear Power Generation in the Philippines: Prospects for Directions in Energy Research in the Global South

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