Fairness in penalty shootouts: Is it worth using dynamic sequences?

Csató, László; Petróczy, Dóra Gréta

doi:10.1080/02640414.2022.2081402

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…22 Soccer penalty shootouts seem to be advantageous for the first shooter 1,23,24 but this bias can be mitigated by a carefully devised mechanism. [25][26][27][28][29][30] The knockout bracket of the 2016 UEFA European Championship has created imbalances among the six round-robin groups of four teams each. 31 Vaziri et al 32 state some fairness properties of sports ranking methods.…”

Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantifying the unfairness of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualification

Csató

2022

International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching

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This paper investigates the fairness of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying competition via Monte Carlo simulations. The qualifying probabilities are calculated for 102 nations, all teams except for African and European countries. A method is proposed to quantify the degree of unfairness. Although the qualifications within four FIFA confederations are constructed fairly, serious differences are found between the continents: for instance, a South American team could have tripled its chances by playing in Asia. Choosing a fixed matchup in the inter-continental play-offs instead of the current random draw can reduce the unfairness of the competition. The move of Australia from the Oceanian to the Asian zone is shown to increase its probability of participating in the 2018 FIFA World Cup by about 65%. Our results provide important insights for the administrators on how to reallocate the qualifying berths.

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Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Format: knockout Competitors: the 14 lowest-ranked teams (22)(23)(24)(25)(26)(27)(28)(29)(30)(31)(32)(33)(34)(35) Seeding: traditional; based on the FIFA World Ranking of August 2014…”

Section: • First Roundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the unfairness of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualification

Csató

2022

International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching

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Tournament design: A review from an operational research perspective

Devriesere,

Csató,

Goossens

2024

European Journal of Operational Research

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A stochastic analysis of the 4 × 100 m relay

Karlsson,

Lunander

2024

International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching

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The baton exchanges are undoubtedly the most critical parts of the 4 × 100 m relay race. Timing of the outgoing runner is critical. In this paper we analyze the race as a minimization problem under uncertainty. We formulate a stochastic model in which the outgoing runner at the baton exchange cannot perfectly assess the incoming runner's exact location relatively a checkmark position, and therefore potentially misjudges the right moment to start running. Also, the team members’ daily shape is subject to uncertainty. To understand the effect of these two random variables—incoming runners’ distance to checkmark and the daily shape of the running team—we conduct a simulation study to investigate the trade-off between the team's expected race time and their probability of being disqualified due to overrunning the takeover zone. Conditioning on a low disqualification probability, the difference in expected race time is shown to be substantial between teams with different variation in distance assessment and forecasting running performance, respectively.

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Fairness in penalty shootouts: Is it worth using dynamic sequences?

Abstract: Alle diese Bestimmungen lassen sich nicht absolut auf jeden Fall anwenden, aber sie müssen dem Handelnden gegenwärtig sein, um den Nutzen der in ihnen enthaltenen Wahrheit nicht zu verlieren, da wo sie gelten kann. 1

Cited by 7 publications

References 21 publications

Quantifying the unfairness of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualification

Quantifying the unfairness of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualification

Tournament design: A review from an operational research perspective

A stochastic analysis of the 4 × 100 m relay

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