Abstract. Predictors of ESRD were identified using independent registries of both ESRD patients and the general population in Okinawa, Japan. Besides male gender, we found that the significant predictors of ESRD to be proteinuria, hematuria, and hypertension, especially diastolic BP. Among the laboratory findings, a high serum creatinine level was shown to be a strong predictor of ESRD. The effects of age, obesity, and hypercholesterolemia were insignificant, but this needs to be confirmed in a larger cohort and other registries.The number of ESRD patients requiring chronic dialysis is increasing worldwide. In Japan, a high incidence and prevalence of ESRD has been reported in Okinawa, the island prefecture in the southernmost part of the country (1,2). Since 1971, all chronic dialysis patients treated in Okinawa from the start of therapy have been entered into a registry, and the ESRD trends over the past 30 yr have recently been published (1). For geographic and cultural reasons, ESRD patients in Okinawa tend not to move away (3,4). Therefore, Okinawa provides a good population in which to study the outcomes of ESRD and cardiovascular disease (3,4). Understanding the process of disease progression is necessary in determining strategies for the prevention of ESRD.We are fortunate to have access to independent registries for ESRD patients (5), the general population (6,7), and all hospital-based records of stroke and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (3) in Okinawa. In this paper, we have identified predictors for ESRD using these registries.
Materials and Methods
Study DesignData from three independent registries covering the entire area of Okinawa were accessed: the ESRD program (5), the screening program of the Okinawa General Health Maintenance Association (OGHMA) (6 -11), and the hospital-based registry of stroke and AMI (3). The start date of chronic dialysis was used as the date of onset of ESRD in individual patients. The 1983 screening participants and the individuals who had become dialysis patients from April 1983 to March 1994 were identified by using the dialysis registry, which covers the entire geographic area. The identities of these dialysis patients were verified by reviewing their medical charts in the dialysis units.
ESRD Patient RegistryAll chronic dialysis patients who survive at least 1 mo on scheduled dialysis are included in the Okinawa Dialysis Study (OKIDS) registry.Patients dying within 1 mo from the start of dialysis are not included in the registry because it cannot be determined whether renal function in these patients has been improving or deteriorating or whether other medical conditions accounted for their rapid demise. Pertinent clinical data were obtained for all new dialysis patients, and important medical events recorded in the files of chronic dialysis patients were noted. Data were obtained under collaboration with physicians in all dialysis units. In 1990, there were 27 dialysis units in Okinawa; by the end of 2000, there were 46: nine in the public sector, 17 in private ...