Farmland for tomorrow in densely populated areas

Vandermeulen, Valerie; Gellynck, Xavier; Huylenbroeck, Guido Van; Orshoven, Jos Van; Bomans, Kirsten

doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2008.10.014

Cited by 17 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Hierarchical scenario development to arrive at scenarios at regional level has been performed in many studies (Rounsevell et al 2003;Abildtrup et al 2006;Audsley et al 2006;Dockerty et al 2006;Vandermeulen et al 2009). These studies, however, focused on modeling spatial distribution of agricultural land use at regional and EU scale under global environmental (climate) change and policy drivers and did not consider farm structural changes induced by these drivers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

2012

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Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However, adaptation to climate change must be considered in the context of other driving forces that will cause farms of the future to look differently from today's farms. In this paper we use a historical analysis of the influence of different drivers on farm structure, complemented with literature and stakeholder consultations, to assess future structural change of farms in a region under different plausible futures. As climate change is one of the drivers considered, this study thus puts climate change impact and adaptation into the context of other drivers. The province of Flevoland in the north of The Netherlands was used as case study, with arable farming as the main activity. To account for the heterogeneity of farms and to indicate possible directions of farm structural change, a farm typology was developed. Trends in past developments in farm types were analyzed with data from the Dutch agricultural census. The historical analysis allowed to detect the relative importance of driving forces that contributed to farm structural changes. Simultaneously, scenario assumptions about changes in these driving forces elaborated at global and European levels, were downscaled for Flevoland, to regional and farm type level in order to project impacts of drivers on farm structural change towards 2050. Input from stakeholders was also used to detail the downscaled scenarios and to derive historical and future relationships between drivers and farm structural change. These downscaled scenarios and future driver-farm structural change relationships were used to derive quantitative estimations of farm structural change at regional and farm type level in Flevoland. In addition, stakeholder input was used to also derive images of future farms in Flevoland. The estimated farm structural changes differed substantially between the two scenarios. Our estimations of farm structural change provide a proper context for assessing impacts of and adaptation to climate change in 2050 at crop and farm level.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

2012

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“…The allocation of land use furthermore depends on the preferred quantity or the perceived scarcity of a specific land use (Eppink et al, 2008;Vandermeulen et al, 2009). Overall farmland preservation will thus also be determined by the perceived need for agriculture as compared with other land uses.…”

Section: Contribution Of Land Suitability Analysis To the Planning Prmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prioritising land to be preserved for agriculture: A context-specific value tree

Kerselaers¹,

Rogge²,

Dessein

et al. 2011

Land Use Policy

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“…For example, the proportion of the 'new' healthier foods that are imported rather than produced in England and Wales is such an important assumption that has implications for the food miles index of food consumption with adverse environmental and social consequences (see Defra, 2005b). Our work can be seen as a contribution to the growing literature on the impacts of dietary change on land use which includes studies for Belgium by Vandermeulen et al (2009) and for the USA by Rickard and Gonsalves (2008) and Buzby et al (2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the likely impact of healthy eating guidelines on agricultural production and land use in England and Wales

Arnoult¹,

Jones

Tranter

et al. 2010

Land Use Policy

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Farmland for tomorrow in densely populated areas

Cited by 17 publications

References 22 publications

Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

Prioritising land to be preserved for agriculture: A context-specific value tree

Modelling the likely impact of healthy eating guidelines on agricultural production and land use in England and Wales

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