Feasibility of Multi-Year Forecast for the Colorado River Water Supply: Time Series Modeling

Plucinski, Brian; Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Sun, Yan; Gillies, Robert R.; Eklund, James; Wang, C.-C.

doi:10.20944/preprints201908.0294.v1

2019

DOI: 10.20944/preprints201908.0294.v1

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Feasibility of Multi-Year Forecast for the Colorado River Water Supply: Time Series Modeling

Brian Plucinski¹,

S.-Y. Simon Wang²,

Yan Sun³

et al.

Abstract: The future of the Colorado River water supply (WS) affects millions of people and the U.S. economy. A recent study suggested a cross-basin correlation between the Colorado River and its neighboring Great Salt Lake (GSL). Following that study, the feasibility of using the previously developed multi-year prediction of the GSL water level to forecast the Colorado River WS was tested. Time-series models were developed to predict the changes in WS out to 10 years. Regressive methods and the GSL water level data wer… Show more

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Cited by 3 publications

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Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of Urban Domestic Water Supply Inputs Based on VES Production Function

Ding

2021

Mathematics

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The Gompertz growth curve is used to describe the urban water population, the linear function is used to represent the per capita disposable income, and the domestic water demand is described combined with the factors of population, income, and the water-saving consciousness. The VES production function is used to describe the production function of the domestic water supply. Combined with system dynamics, the supply and demand management model of urban domestic water in Jiangsu province, China, is developed. The process of water supply investment and labor input in the urban domestic water system is studied with two depreciation methods: the straight-line depreciation method and the sum of years digits method. In the case that the water consumption population is expected to decline, four water demand scenarios composed of different per capita disposable income and the growth rate of water-saving consciousness are investigated. Investment and labor input are taken as control variables to conduct water supply and demand simulations for the four scenarios. The results show that the control schemes in all four scenarios reach a balance between water supply and demand. Moreover, the investment of the sum of years digits method is larger than that of the straight-line depreciation method in 2005–2019 but less than that of the straight-line depreciation method in 2020–2034. The sum of years digits method has the characteristics of more depreciation in the early stage and less depreciation in the later stage, which is conducive to timely compensation for the large loss of fixed assets in the early stage.

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Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of Urban Domestic Water Supply Inputs Based on VES Production Function

Ding

2021

Mathematics

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Analysis and Prediction of Dammed Water Level in a Hydropower Reservoir Using Machine Learning and Persistence-Based Techniques

Castillo-Botón

Casillas-Pérez

Casanova-Mateo

et al. 2020

Water

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This paper presents long- and short-term analyses and predictions of dammed water level in a hydropower reservoir. The long-term analysis was carried out by using techniques such as detrended fluctuation analysis, auto-regressive models, and persistence-based algorithms. On the other hand, the short-term analysis of the dammed water level in the hydropower reservoir was modeled as a prediction problem, where machine learning regression techniques were studied. A set of models, including different types of neural networks, Support Vector regression, or Gaussian processes was tested. Real data from a hydropower reservoir located in Galicia, Spain, qwew considered, together with predictive variables from upstream measuring stations. We show that the techniques presented in this paper offer an excellent tool for the long- and short-term analysis and prediction of dammed water level in reservoirs for hydropower purposes, especially important for the management of water resources in areas with hydrology stress, such as Spain.

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Research on the Impact of Tourism Development on the Sustainable Development of Reservoir Headwater Area Using China’s Tingxi Reservoir as an Example

Shen

Liang

Hsu

et al. 2020

Water

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The purpose of this study was to understand the impact of tourism development on the sustainable development of Tingxi Reservoir. Based on tourism impact theory, 804 questionnaires were statistically validated and analyzed, followed by a semi-structured interview with five respondents, and finally examined by a multivariate verification method. The study found that not only did development fail to raise land and housing prices, develop leisure activities, improve medical facilities, and supplement police manpower, but it also increased consumer costs and environmental damage. There were also problems such as insufficient interpreters, parking and rest facilities, and ineffective management of communication channels, bicycle facilities, and tourist waste, which did not help youths to return to their hometowns. Furthermore, due to the disparities in the performance of leisure opportunities, medical and health care, spatial planning, and cultural development, there were different opinions among the stakeholders. Suggestions: (1) Satisfy the needs of different stakeholders; (2) Improve the environmental literacy of tourists and provide more garbage cans; (3) Develop additional scenic spots to divert tourists; (4) Stabilize prices and attract investment from enterprises; and (5) Increase the participation of residents in community development to supplement industrial manpower.

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Feasibility of Multi-Year Forecast for the Colorado River Water Supply: Time Series Modeling

Cited by 3 publications

References 20 publications

Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of Urban Domestic Water Supply Inputs Based on VES Production Function

Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of Urban Domestic Water Supply Inputs Based on VES Production Function

Analysis and Prediction of Dammed Water Level in a Hydropower Reservoir Using Machine Learning and Persistence-Based Techniques

Research on the Impact of Tourism Development on the Sustainable Development of Reservoir Headwater Area Using China’s Tingxi Reservoir as an Example

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