Feedbacks between global supply chain disruption and the spread of SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

The pandemic of COVID-19 has become one of the greatest threats to human health, causing severe disruptions in the global supply chain, and compromising health care delivery worldwide. Although government authorities sought to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, by restricting travel and in-person activities, failure to deploy time-sensitive strategies in ramping-up of critical resource production exacerbated the outbreak. Here, we analyze the interactive effects of supply chain disruption and infectious disease dynamics using coupled production and disease networks built on global data. We find that time-sensitive containment strategies could be created to balance objectives in pandemic control and economic losses, leading to a spatiotemporal separation of infection peaks that alleviate the societal impact of the disease. A lean resource allocation strategy is discovered that effectively counteracts the positive feedback between transmission and production such that stockpiles of health care resources may be manufactured and distributed to limit future shortage and disease. The study highlights the importance of cross-sectoral coordination and region-wise collaboration to optimally contain a pandemic while accounting for production.