ABSTRACT. In this study, we explore student achievement in a semester-long flipped Calculus II course, combining various predictor measures related to student attitudes (math anxiety, math confidence, math interest, math importance) and cognitive skills (spatial skills, approximate number system), as well as student engagement with the online system (discussion forum interaction, time to submission of workshop assignments, quiz attempts), in predicting final grades. Data from 85 students enrolled in a flipped Calculus II course was used in dominance analysis to determine which predictors emerged as the most important for predicting final grades. Results indicated that feelings of math importance, approximate number system (ANS) ability, total amount of discussion forum posting, and time grading peer workshop submissions was the best combination of predictors of final grade, accounting for 17% of variance in a student's final grade. The point of this work was to determine which predictors are the most important in predicting student grade, with the end goal of building a recommendation system that could be implemented to help students in this traditionally difficult class. The methods used here could be used for any class.Keywords: Math performance, calculus, flipped classroom, math attitudes, cognitive performance, student engagement
INTRODUCTIONOver the past few years, the attrition of STEM-focused undergraduates in the United States has become a critical national concern, with "a substantial number of undergraduate students initially enrolled in STEM degree programs [dropping] out in the first two years" (PCAST, 2012). In order to maintain highquality instructional practices in the face of STEM undergraduate attrition, growing demand for large (2017 130 numbers of graduates, and diminishing financial and human resources, many colleges and universities are turning to technologically aided teaching practices. This technological shift aims to integrate the traditional classroom environment with online course resources to enhance, replace, and supplement face-to-face instruction to reach more students in a cost-effective way (Garrison & Kanuka, 2004).To accommodate this shift toward technologically aided teaching methods, schools have implemented campus-wide Learning Management Systems (LMS), such as Moodle and Blackboard. These web-based management systems provide data related to the "user," with every action of the student tracked and recorded online. The underlying advantage of these LMS data is that they unobtrusively record individual student activity and interaction with course materials in real-time, providing a lens into traditionally unobservable learning-related behaviours and silently tracking individual students' learning progression (Macfadyen & Dawson, 2010; Gašević, Dawson, & Siemens, 2015). In traditional college courses, many performance measures, for example midterm or final exams (Lee, Speglia, Ha, Finch, & Nehm, 2015;Macfadyen & Dawson, 2010), are taken too late in the semester to identify st...