At the heart of the vision of sustainable development and
intergenerational responsibility lies the prudent use of natural
resources. Agriculture is a key sector both in terms of resources
consumed and of goods and services provided. Recently Its
intensification and expansion have been studied and their sustainability
evaluated, often with a particular focus on water management. While, in
literature, possible agricultural strategies have been based on local
water availability and, in some cases, downstream effects of such
strategies have been evaluated, a method to identify and quantify
hydrologically sustainable land use and crop use changes directly
accounting for downstream effects is yet to be defined. Here we propose
a framework to assess hydrological sustainability of land use and crop
use changes, preventing both in situ and downstream effects. We apply
this framework on the case study of coffee plantations expansion in
Kenya, a sector that is seeing, and is planned to see, a rapid growth,
given its potential in promoting agricultural, economic, and social
development, not without risks associated to hydroclimatic change. We
simulate the hydrological alterations caused by coffee plantation
expansion onto available suitable areas, and use these simulations to
identify areas where the expansion does not generate water scarcity
either in situ or downstream. The assessment of hydrological suitability
proves effective in preventing water availability reduction. Areas
selected for expansion present similar total water footprints as
currently used areas, but with higher precipitation-generated water
availability. The proposed methodology identifies and quantifies areas
in a physically robust, and thus transparent, way, also maintaining
flexibility to the selected expansion scenario and low data intensity.
This makes this framework a potentially easily replicable methodology
for planning sustainable agricultural development within planetary
boundaries.