Fertility and the business cycle: the European case

Bellido, Héctor; Marcén, Miriam

doi:10.1007/s11150-019-09449-y

Cited by 19 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…In general, most studies find that fertility declines are temporary and constitute mainly a postponement of births among younger women (for a review see Sobotka et al 2011 ). Several studies also indicate that fertility responses may vary across recession episodes, countries, parities, age groups, and social strata (Sobotka et al 2011 ; Neels et al 2013 ; Comolli 2018 ; Bellido and Marcén 2019 ). Economic downturns tend to more negatively affect first births among younger adults who have the opportunity to postpone childbearing until economic and labor-market security has been restored (Andersson 2000 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After Recessions in the Nordic Countries

et al. 2020

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During the 2010s, fertility rates fell across the Nordic region. The onset of these declines seems linked to the Great Recession of 2008–2009, but their continuation cannot easily be linked to subsequent economic change. The 1990s, too, brought episodes of economic crises to the Nordic region that were followed by different degrees of fertility decline. In this study, we provide an empirical overview of parity-, age- and education-specific fertility developments in the five Nordic countries in the wake of the economic recessions in 2008 and the early 1990s, respectively. We demonstrate a high degree of heterogeneity in fertility developments across countries after 1990, whereas after 2008, the trends are much more similar across the five countries. Likewise, the educational differences in birth hazards that characterized the developments after 1990 were much smaller in the initial years after 2008–2009. This reversal from heterogeneity to homogeneity in the fertility response to recessions calls for an expansion of theories on the cyclicality of fertility in relation to uncertainty and economic and social change. In our discussion, we consider the role of a set of factors that also incorporates the state, crisis management, and perceptions of economic and welfare uncertainty.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After Recessions in the Nordic Countries

et al. 2020

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“…Other studies adopted a broader comparative perspective, mostly based on country-level data. Bellido and Marcén (2016) investigated changes in total fertility in response to an increase in unemployment using a pooled sample of 30 European countries over the period 1991-2013. Goldstein et al (2013) looked, in addition, at changes in age-specific fertility rates by birth order, but covered only the first stage of the economic recession until 2010.…”

Section: Economic Downturn and Fertility: Past Research And Key Objecmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis

2020

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This study investigates how the changes in labour market conditions and economic growth were associated with fertility before and during the Great Recession in Europe in 2002-2014. In contrast to previous studies, which largely concentrated at the country level, we use data for 251 European regions in 28 European Union (EU) member states prior to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom in January 2020. We apply three-level growth-curve model which allows for a great deal of flexibility in modelling temporal change while controlling for variation in economic conditions across regions and countries. Our findings show that fertility decline was strongly related to unemployment increase; this relationship was significant at different reproductive ages. Deteriorating economic conditions were associated with a stronger decline in fertility during the economic recession as compared with the pre-recession period. This evidence suggests the salience of factors such as broader perception of uncertainty that we could not capture in our models and which rose to prominence during the Great Recession. Furthermore, strongest fertility declines were observed in Southern Europe, Ireland and parts of Central and Eastern Europe, i.e. countries and regions where labour market conditions deteriorated most during the recession period. In Western Europe, and especially in the Nordic countries, fertility rates were not closely associated with the recession indicators.

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“…Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After… studies find that fertility declines are temporary and constitute mainly a postponement of births among younger women (for a review see Sobotka et al 2011). Several studies also indicate that fertility responses may vary across recession episodes, countries, parities, age groups, and social strata (Sobotka et al 2011;Neels et al 2013;Comolli 2018;Bellido and Marcén 2019). Economic downturns tend to more negatively affect first births among younger adults who have the opportunity to postpone childbearing until economic and labor-market security has been restored (Andersson 2000).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing during and after Recessions in the Nordic Countries

Comolli¹,

Neyer²,

Andersson³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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During the 2010s, fertility rates fell across the Nordic region. The onset of thesedeclines seems linked to the Great Recession of 2008–2009 but their continuation cannot easilybe linked to subsequent economic change. The 1990s, too, brought episodes of economic crisesto the Nordic region that were followed by different degrees of fertility decline. In this study,we provide an empirical overview of parity-, age- and education-specific fertility developmentsin the five Nordic countries in the wake of the economic recessions in 2008 and the early 1990s,respectively. We demonstrate a high degree of heterogeneity in fertility developments acrosscountries after 1990, whereas after 2008, the trends are much more similar across the fivecountries. Likewise, the educational differences in birth hazards that characterized thedevelopments after 1990 were much smaller in the initial years after 2008–2009. This reversalfrom heterogeneity to homogeneity in the fertility response to recessions calls for an expansionof theories on the cyclicality of fertility in relation to uncertainty and economic and socialchange. In our discussion, we consider the role of a set of factors that also incorporates the state,crisis management, and perceptions of economic and welfare uncertainty.

show abstract

Fertility and the business cycle: the European case

Cited by 19 publications

References 69 publications

Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After Recessions in the Nordic Countries

Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After Recessions in the Nordic Countries

The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis

Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing during and after Recessions in the Nordic Countries

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