Fertility, mortality and the developed world's demographic transition

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The model features three regions -the U.S., Japan, and the EU-15 -and incorporates age-and time-specific fertility and mortality rates, detailed fiscal institutions, and international capital mobility, subject to adjustment costs. Our simulations confirm the offsetting fiscal and economic consequences of both higher fertility and lower mortality rates. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor mayThe simulations indicate very minor effects on the developed world's rather bleak baseline transition path from either major increases in fertility rates or major reductions in mortality rates.JEL Code: D58, H55, J11.

Global demographic trends and social security reform

“…with age i < I R ) have contributed to the system throughout the years and have accumulated pension 21 We do not report welfare calculations for the experiment where we increase the retirement age I R because they are not too meaningful, given the absence of disutility from leisure.…”

The dynamic fiscal effects of demographic shift: The case of Australia

“…This class of models has been used by many researchers worldwide to analyse the economic effects of population ageing -see, for example, Fougere and Merette (1999), Fehr (2000), Kotlikoff et al (2007), Fehr et al (2008) and Lisenkova et al (2013). The model we use for our analysis is an extension of the small open economy, OLG model for Australia that was developed by Kudrna and Woodland (2011).…”

Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth

“…The expected effects do occur initially, but after a few decades these effects wear off and are replaced by weakened or reversed effects in some cases. Using an international OLG model Fehr et al (2008) find that in developed nations as a region, even a large increase in fertility or mortality would not have much effect until 2070, due to the momentum of demographic change.…”