Fertility Response to Child Mortality: Micro Data from Israel

Ben-Porath, Yoram

doi:10.1086/260537

Cited by 126 publications

(60 citation statements)

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“…An important final test of the performance of the model is the comparison between the 11 An standard χ 2 test rejects the overidentifying restriction at conventional levels. 12 In particular, it seems that the main reason for the low mortality is that deaths are concentrated only at the end of each period. That makes the population structure move in jumps instead of following a smooth curve and decreases death rates for a given fertility rate.…”

Section: The Steady Statementioning

confidence: 99%

Was Malthus Right? Economic Growth and Population Dynamics

Fernández-Villaverde

2001

SSRN Journal

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Section: The Steady Statementioning

confidence: 99%

Was Malthus Right? Economic Growth and Population Dynamics

Fernández-Villaverde

2001

SSRN Journal

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“…Exogenous child mortality decline should lead to a fertility decline as women have fewer children if they know the chance of their survival is high (Kalemli-Ozcan, 2002). But there are many caveats due to specific factors (Ben-Porath, 1976;Barro, 1991;Haines, 1998). For instance, if the loss of a child affects the mother's health, there may be a subsequent fertility decline following from a child mortality increase (Rutstein and Medica, 1978).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The demographic transition and economic growth: implications for development policy

2015

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An important transition in the economic history of countries occurs when they move from a regime of low prosperity, high child mortality and high fertility to a state of high prosperity, low child mortality and low fertility. Researchers have proposed various theories to explain this demographic transition and its relation to economic growth. In this article, we test the validity of some of these theories by fitting a non-linear dynamic model for the available cross-country data. Our approach fills the gap between the micro-level models that discuss causative mechanisms but do not consider if alternative models may fit the data well, and models from growth econometrics that show the impact of different factors on economic growth but do not include non-linearities and complex interactions. In our model, mortality and fertility decline and economic growth are endogenized by considering a simultaneous system of equations in the change variables. The model shows that the transition is best described in terms of a development cycle involving child mortality, fertility and GDP per capita. Fertility rate decreases when child mortality is low, and is weakly dependent on GDP. As fertility rates fall, GDP increases, and as GDP increases, child mortality falls. We further test the hypothesis that female education drives down fertility rates rather than child mortality, but find only weak evidence for it. The Bayesian methodology we use ensures robust models and we identify non-linear interactions between indicators to capture real-world nonlinearities. Hence, our models can be used in policymaking to predict short-term evolutions in the indicator variables. We also discuss how our approach can be used to evaluate policy initiatives such as the Millennium Development Goals or the Sustainable Development Goals and set more accurate, country-specific development targets.

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“…Microeconomic theories of fertility and child mortality are at the root of many explanations of the demographic transition. Most previous work concerning the relationship between child mortality and fertility has focused on the issue of replacement, primarily at an empirical level (Ben-Porath (1976), Olsen (1980), Schultz (1976). The existence of a replacement effect rests upon the intuitive notion that a new child is a better substitute for a child that has died than is any other commodity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Families in low survival environments, it is argued, will carry an inventory of children"in anticipation of future deaths (Schultz (1976), Ben-Porath (1976)). This strategy would seem most tenable where older children have non-negligible mortality rates since direct replacement may be more costly {perhaps, in a biological sense) at later maternal ages, or where desired fertility is non-negligible at older ages.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Estimable Dynamic Stochastic Model of Fertility and Child Mortality

Wolpin¹

1984

Journal of Political Economy

287

154

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Fertility Response to Child Mortality: Micro Data from Israel

Cited by 126 publications

References 0 publications

Was Malthus Right? Economic Growth and Population Dynamics

Was Malthus Right? Economic Growth and Population Dynamics

The demographic transition and economic growth: implications for development policy

An Estimable Dynamic Stochastic Model of Fertility and Child Mortality

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