Abstract:Cet article est consacré aux liens entre la finance et les performances macroéconomiques. Il étudie en particulier la distinction entre les effets de court terme, associés au cycle et aux crises économiques, et ceux de long terme, associés à la croissance économique. Après une présentation des résultats récents sur ces deux différents effets, les auteurs montrent comment la notion d'hystérèse permet de les analyser conjointement. Ils montrent en particulier que si une forte croissance financière s'accompagne g… Show more
“…This approach to distinguish high and low values of a variable is widely used in the economics and management literature (see, e.g. Alkaersig et al, 2013;Eichengreen & Gupta, 2016;Grjebine & Tripier, 2015;Shi et al, 2019)…”
This study examines whether the level of a country's resilience to shocks moderates the link between the size of the tourism industry and the economic policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic using data from 113 countries. The findings suggest that countries with large tourism sectors responded more aggressively by using economic stimulus packages to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic; however, the impact of the tourism sector is moderated by the country's resilience to shocks. The study also finds that both high level of economic resilience and high level of risk quality of a country moderate the link between the tourism sector and the economic policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings of the study suggest that tourism businesses in high resilient countries are better prepared to cope with the disruptive challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and thus needed less assistance from governments. Improving a country's resilience to shocks is an important strategy to minimize the impact of future negative shocks in the tourism sector.
“…This approach to distinguish high and low values of a variable is widely used in the economics and management literature (see, e.g. Alkaersig et al, 2013;Eichengreen & Gupta, 2016;Grjebine & Tripier, 2015;Shi et al, 2019)…”
This study examines whether the level of a country's resilience to shocks moderates the link between the size of the tourism industry and the economic policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic using data from 113 countries. The findings suggest that countries with large tourism sectors responded more aggressively by using economic stimulus packages to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic; however, the impact of the tourism sector is moderated by the country's resilience to shocks. The study also finds that both high level of economic resilience and high level of risk quality of a country moderate the link between the tourism sector and the economic policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings of the study suggest that tourism businesses in high resilient countries are better prepared to cope with the disruptive challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and thus needed less assistance from governments. Improving a country's resilience to shocks is an important strategy to minimize the impact of future negative shocks in the tourism sector.
“…Demetriades and Rousseau (2016) also find that financial depth is no longer a significant growth determinant. Together with the evident damaging impact of the financial crisis on subsequent economic growth (Kaminsky and Reinhart, 1999;Jordà et al, 2016;Grjebine and Tripier, 2017), these findings have led several studies to reconsider prior conclusions and investigate potential non-linearities.…”
“… Of particular interest is the effect of time lags, or, put differently, hysteresis. Hysteresis is a situation whereby the consequences of an action persist even after the action has ended (Grjebine and Tripier, 2017), Hence, the present events depend on past, expired events. Following that logic, present crises may be influenced by past, extinct crises.…”
Predator-prey dynamics are widely used in ecology but seldom utilized in economics and marketing, despite their ability to express financial market agents' behaviors when considered in combination with economic cycles and financial crises. This multidisciplinary paper presents a stylized framework of a market cycle that combines the notions of supply and demand and predator-prey interactions between buyers and sellers of housing mortgages. We illustrate our framework using data from the Global Financial Crisis and a Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model. We find that with our framework we are able to capture the dynamics of the market, particularly the peak and decline in the number of sellers and sold subprime mortgages. Our framework sheds a new light on consumer behaviors, pinpointing how they can put themselves into vulnerable prey positions. This paper is one of the first of its kind to propose market phases and predator-prey dynamics nested in economic cycles and consumer buying trends.
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