Finding Global Liquefied Natural Gas Potential Trade Relations Based on Improved Link Prediction

Abstract

Unstable factors such as international relations, geopolitics, and transportation routes make natural gas trade complex and changeable. Diversified and flexible sources of liquefied natural gas (LNG) can guarantee the energy supply security of natural gas-consuming countries. Therefore, it is very important to find potential natural gas trade links to help the government find potential partners and prepare strategically in advance. In this paper, the global LNG network is taken as the research object. In order to fully consider the importance of nodes and the influence of economic and political factors, the “centrality degree” and “node attraction degree” are added into the link prediction algorithm, and multifactor coupling is carried out. The reliability of the improved algorithm is verified using the area under the curve (AUC) evaluation index, and the prediction results are analyzed. The results are as follows: Trinidad, Russia, Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea (Eq. Guinea) are more likely to establish new LNG trading relationships with other countries. For all potential trade relationships, potential relations involving the above countries are more likely to be realized within 5 years, while potential relations involving China, India, Japan, and South Korea are more likely to be realized within 2 years. China, India, and South Korea are more likely to import LNG from Algeria, and Taiwan Province is more likely to import LNG from Algeria, Angola, Eq. Guinea, and America. On the basis of the above study, states and governments can give priority to the above countries and regions when dealing with the possible LNG supply crisis.

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Market Dynamics of the International Liquefied Natural Gas Trade: A Multilevel Network Analysis

“…Chen et al explored the competition pattern of the global LNG market and pointed out that the current competitive relationships in the LNG trade are increasing and tend to be globalized [28]. Jin et al used an improved link prediction algorithm to predict the likelihood of potential relationships among trading countries in the global LNG trade network [30]. In addition, to express the global LNG trade flow more precisely, multisource data such as vessel movement and ports are beginning to be applied in the empirical analysis of LNG imports and exports by trading countries [31].…”

Reviewing the impact of LNG technology advancements on global energy markets

“…Political stability in major LNG exporting regions is a critical determinant of the reliability and sustainability of global LNG supply (Jin et al,2022). The geopolitical landscape encompasses nation-state dynamics, where political stability or instability directly affects the long-term viability of LNG projects.…”

Improved Link Prediction Method for Maritime Silk Road Shipping Network Using Composite Index

“…Filimonova et al (32) established a directed network for international LNG trade in 2019, and used the link prediction method to find potential trade routes and provide decision support for countries and their governments. Jin et al (33) added node centrality and attractiveness to the link prediction algorithm, carried out multi-factor coupling, predicted the link of the global LNG trade network, and analyzed the feasibility and superiority of the improved algorithm.…”