Unstable factors such as international relations, geopolitics, and transportation routes make natural gas trade complex and changeable. Diversified and flexible sources of liquefied natural gas (LNG) can guarantee the energy supply security of natural gas-consuming countries. Therefore, it is very important to find potential natural gas trade links to help the government find potential partners and prepare strategically in advance. In this paper, the global LNG network is taken as the research object. In order to fully consider the importance of nodes and the influence of economic and political factors, the “centrality degree” and “node attraction degree” are added into the link prediction algorithm, and multifactor coupling is carried out. The reliability of the improved algorithm is verified using the area under the curve (AUC) evaluation index, and the prediction results are analyzed. The results are as follows: Trinidad, Russia, Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea (Eq. Guinea) are more likely to establish new LNG trading relationships with other countries. For all potential trade relationships, potential relations involving the above countries are more likely to be realized within 5 years, while potential relations involving China, India, Japan, and South Korea are more likely to be realized within 2 years. China, India, and South Korea are more likely to import LNG from Algeria, and Taiwan Province is more likely to import LNG from Algeria, Angola, Eq. Guinea, and America. On the basis of the above study, states and governments can give priority to the above countries and regions when dealing with the possible LNG supply crisis.
Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, Chinese enterprises have invested heavily in transport infrastructure projects. In order to better promote Chinese overseas transport infrastructure investment (TII) and avoid additional risks, it is necessary to scientifically assess the performance of Chinese TII in countries along the BRI and explore the promotion path of Chinese TII performance. For this reason, we used a superefficient slacks-based measurement (SE-SBM) model to calculate Chinese TII performance based on 5 dimensions, including political environment, economic environment, institutional environment, humanistic environment, and social environment. These 5 dimensions were divided into 14 indicators, and we used quantification with indirect data to quantify all indicators. Then, according to the performance value of selected countries, we classified them into high-, medium-, and low-performance areas. Next, combined with the scale of returns and the shadow price of input indicators, we provided the promotion measures of each performance area. Our analysis generates valuable measures to reduce TII risks and better promote the connectivity of countries along the BRI.
Ports play a vital role in the development of cities. In order to study the contribution of seaports to the urban economy, this paper uses the input–output method and multiplier theory to calculate the direct, indirect, and ripple economic contribution of ports to cities. Then, this paper selects Xiamen Port as an example to calculate the economic contribution. Xiamen Port is a major port on the southeast coast of China and an important node of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. It can provide a reference for other port cities. A more detailed index system for evaluating the economic contribution is also constructed. Next, the time series ARIMA model is used to predict the cargo throughput and container throughput of Xiamen Port in the next four years. Finally, there are some suggestions put forward for the development of Xiamen Port. The results show the total economic contribution of Xiamen Port to the city accounted for 10.48% of the city’s GDP in 2017. Direct, indirect, and ripple economic contributions accounted for 2.84%, 2.13%, and 5.51%, respectively. The contribution of Xiamen Port to the city is in line with the growth pole theory, which not only allows for rapid growth in Xiamen Port itself but also drives the development of the entire region through the multiplier effect. The cargo throughput and container throughput of Xiamen Port will maintain continuous growth in the next four years. Therefore, the development of Xiamen Port should be accelerated to enhance its economic contribution to the city.
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