Finding what you don’t know: Testing SDM methods for poorly known species

Radomski, Tom; Beamer, David A.; Babineau, Alan; Wilson, Christa; Pechmann, Joseph H. K.; Kozak, Kenneth H.

doi:10.1111/ddi.13536

Cited by 20 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Since several studies (e.g., Escobar, Qiao, Cabello, & Peterson, 2018; Pearson et al, 2006) have shown that the accuracy of SDMs is distorted by the quality of data (Fernandes, Scherrer, & Guisan, 2019) and small sample sizes, SDMs were built only for species with >15 occurrence data points following van Proosdij, Sosef, Wieringa, and Raes (2016). For species with <20 locality points, species‐specific model settings were used (Radomski et al, 2022). Of the 5510 initial specimen locality data collated, only 3576 specimens representing 101 GCFR species were ultimately used for SDM development (Table S1).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are several debates regarding the limitations of the use of AUC to assess model performance (e.g., Escobar et al, 2018). However, many authors argued that the use of MaxEnt model for the SDM takes such limitations into consideration (e.g., Galante et al, 2018; Radomski et al, 2022; Sheth et al, 2014) and AUC can be used if a threshold of >0.5 via jack‐knifing is adopted (Escobar, Qiao, Cabello, & Peterson, 2018; Hijmans, 2019). Further, for improved model performance, we employed a null model test (van Proosdij et al, 2016).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Extinction risk patterns in a biodiversity hotspot—The case of Thesium (Santalaceae) in the Greater Cape Floristic Region

Zhigila

Muasya

Verboom

2023

Conservat Sci and Prac

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Ecologically specialized plants are expected to be at greater risk of extinction than generalists due to climate change. Such risk is greatest in biodiversity hotspots such as the Greater Cape Floristic Region (GCFR), which accommodates both ecological specialists and generalists. Thesium L., a genus with the highest number of species in Santalaceae and the most diverse in Africa, offers an appropriate system for evaluating both the correlates of range extent and specialization and the relative extinction risks associated with both. We hypothesized that range size, ecological specialization, and consequent climatically modulated extinction risks are all phylogenetically structured, such that climate change will precipitate a disproportionate loss of phylogenetic diversity in the GCFR Thesium. Past and future species distribution ranges were predicted using MaxEnt models based on present‐day occurrences and environmental conditions. Of the 101 Thesium species modeled, 70% have had large range sizes during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 50% currently have a large range size, and future conditions are predicted to allow 40% to obtain large range sizes. Between the LGM and the present, 17% of species are thought to have undergone a contraction of available range space in the present time whereas 37% are expected to expand their ranges into the future, while 51% of species will experience range contractions. Of the 65 species currently ranked as Least Concern in the South African Red List, 24% will likely shift into higher extinction risk categories. Interestingly, 8.5% of ecological specialists, although having experienced a range reduction from the LGM to the present, are predicted to persist in the face of future climate change. However, the range extent, ecological specialization, and extinction risk are phylogenetically random and therefore should have a negligible impact on the phylogenetic diversity of the GCFR Thesium.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extinction risk patterns in a biodiversity hotspot—The case of Thesium (Santalaceae) in the Greater Cape Floristic Region

Zhigila

Muasya

Verboom

2023

Conservat Sci and Prac

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“…Both the evaluation of bivariate models (Breiner et al . 2015) and the final ensemble were done using the Boyce Index (Radomski et al . 2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We then built a final ensemble prediction averaging across the selected models. Both the evaluation of bivariate models (Breiner et al 2015) and the final ensemble were done using the Boyce Index (Radomski et al 2022). We then projected the model under the climate and LULC change scenarios.…”

Section: Model Building and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential distribution of the yellow monitor, Varanus flavescens (Hardwick & Gray) under multiple climate, land cover and dispersal scenarios in Nepal

Baral

Kunwar²,

Adhikari³

et al. 2023

Wildlife Res.

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Human-induced changes in climate and land cover have altered the distribution of fauna around the globe. Some reptiles have been found to be vulnerable to these changes; therefore, studies to identify the impact of the changes on other groups of reptiles are necessary. Aims. We aimed to study the impact of climate and land cover change on the yellow monitor (Varanus flavescens) in Nepal. We also aimed to identify the current distribution range and predict the potential distribution under multiple climate change, corresponding land cover change, and dispersion scenarios in the near-and mid-future. Methods. We used available presence locations with a candidate set of the least-correlated environmental variables and an Ensemble of Small Models (ESM), a Species Distribution Model (SDM) approach suitable for species with small sample size. Additionally, dispersal scenarios of 1 km, 5 km, and 10 km were added to the model to determine the future distribution under the dispersal scenarios. Key results. We found soil particle size, distance to forest, precipitation of wettest quarter, bulk density, and elevation were the five most important variables contributing to the distribution of the species. The Terai lowland and wide valleys in Outer Himalayas are currently suitable but are expected to experience a substantial decrease under most future climate projections and dispersal scenarios. Conclusions. The distribution is mostly dependent on soil-related variables; however, climatic variables might have a greater impact on future suitability. Implications. Limiting emissions contributing to climatic changes, conserving the soil outside the protected areas, and the potential areas where the species will not experience habitat loss might contribute to the conservation of the species.

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“…To construct the species distribution model of greater mouse-deer, we applied the maximum entropy algorithm [53] using Maxent 3.4.1 software [54]. This method is recommended for generating species distribution models when sample sizes or occurrence records are small [55], and its popularity has increased over the past decade owing to the robust distribution estimates obtained [56]. The "kuenm" package [57] in R 4.2.0 [58] was used to select the model used to estimate habitat suitability in a study area.…”

Section: Modeling Species Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genetic Monitoring of the Last Captive Population of Greater Mouse-Deer on the Thai Mainland and Prediction of Habitat Suitability before Reintroduction

Wongloet

Kongthong²,

Chaiyes

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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Developing successful conservation programs for genetically depleted species is challenging. Survival and adaptive potential are related to genetic and habitat factors; therefore, conservation programs are designed to minimize risks associated with inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity. The greater mouse-deer (Tragulus napu) is a true forest species that contributes to seed distribution dynamics in forests. However, with continuous demographic decline over the last century in the wild, only captive populations of the greater mouse-deer remain on the Thai mainland. A restoration program initiated 20 years ago has increased their population to more than 100 individuals but maintaining high genetic diversity in a small captive population is crucial for successful recovery. Microsatellite genotyping and mitochondrial D-loop and SRY gene sequence analyses were performed to examine the genetic diversity and population structure in 123 greater mouse-deer (64 females and 59 males). Highly reduced effective captive population size with trends of inbreeding were observed. No historical bottleneck was observed. These conditions have reduced their reproductive fitness and ability to adapt to environmental change, increasing the risk of population decline and eventual extinction. Demographic analyses suggested a recent captive population expansion due to effective animal welfare and reproduction. The results also suggested that population size at equilibrium is the main factor of allelic diversity (number of alleles). Large habitat carrying capacity, representing each fixed captive population size can support the genetic diversity of greater mouse-deer. We also identified suitable habitat areas for reintroduction and long-term in situ conservation of greater mouse-deer using maximum entropy modeling. Based on the environmental variables, species distribution modeling for greater mouse-deer indicated lowland tropical forest regions in the Khlong Saeng-Khao Sok forest complexes as most suitable and requiring urgent habitat improvement. These findings highlight the relevance of careful genetic monitoring and habitat suitability for the long-term conservation of greater mouse-deer and enhance the success of future conservation plans.

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Finding what you don’t know: Testing SDM methods for poorly known species

Cited by 20 publications

References 60 publications

Extinction risk patterns in a biodiversity hotspot—The case of Thesium (Santalaceae) in the Greater Cape Floristic Region

Extinction risk patterns in a biodiversity hotspot—The case of Thesium (Santalaceae) in the Greater Cape Floristic Region

The potential distribution of the yellow monitor, Varanus flavescens (Hardwick & Gray) under multiple climate, land cover and dispersal scenarios in Nepal

Genetic Monitoring of the Last Captive Population of Greater Mouse-Deer on the Thai Mainland and Prediction of Habitat Suitability before Reintroduction

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