A new model is constructed using the weighted average yield criterion (WA criterion) to eliminate the excessive model error in estimating the groove rolling force of a heavy plate. To this end, under the precondition of plane deformation, a two-dimensional strain rate fieldfor describing groove rolling is established in the cylindrical coordinate system. The WA criterion, replacing the Mises yield criterion (Mises criterion), is introduced to calculate the internal deformation power based on the strain rate field. The shear power and friction power are also obtained according to the shear yield condition derived from the criterion. Finally, an analytical rolling force model is established based on the variational principle. The results are compared with those by a model based on the Mises criterion and their corresponding measured ones. The model developed in this paper is proven to be more accurate than the model using the Mises criterion. Through parameter analysis, it is found that the groove rolling force is significantly affected by these parameters, such as the size of the rolled workpiece, reduction, and friction factor. The present research can serve as a scientific foundation for high-precision groove rolling control for the heavy plate.