Fir forest demography using matrix projections: Anomaly precipitation due to climatic change decrease population viability

Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro Rafael; Pineda-López, María del Rosario; Ibarra-Zavaleta, Sara Patricia; López-Serrano, Yitsendi

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118845

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…occurred during the dry season (December-May). This is consistent with previous observations of a high mortality of emergent seedlings of natural regeneration in the core zone of the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) [29], and seems to support the projected decrease in climatic habitat suitable for A. religiosa inside the MBBR as a result of climatic change [26,30,[49][50][51]. The apparent reason for the observed timing of this mortality is that the dry season was as dry as always, perhaps a little more so, but was warmer due to the ongoing climatic change.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Reciprocal Common Garden Altitudinal Transplants Reveal Potential Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Abies religiosa Populations in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve Overwintering Sites

Cruzado-Vargas

Blanco‐García

Lindig‐Cisneros

et al. 2021

Forests

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Research Highlights: Reciprocal altitudinal transplants of Abies religiosa seedlings within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) allow prediction of the impacts of climatic change, because they grow in sites with a climate that differs from that of their origin. Background and Objectives: Climatic change is generating a mismatch between the sites currently occupied by forest populations and the climate to which they have adapted. This study determined the effect on the survival and growth of A. religiosa seedlings of transfer to sites that were warmer or colder than that of the origin of their seeds. Materials and Methods: Eleven provenances of A. religiosa, collected along an altitudinal gradient (3000 to 3550 m a.s.l.), were assayed in common gardens in three sites of contrasting altitude: 3400, 3000 and 2600 m a.s.l. The results were evaluated by fitting a response curve with a mixed model. Results: The climate transfer distance for the seasonal balance between the temperature conducive to growth (degree days above 5 °C) and the available precipitation (a ratio expressed as dryness index) dominated the shape of the response function curve. The rainy season (June–October) dryness index transfer distance was critical for survival, while that of the cold and dry season (November–February) was critical for aerial biomass, and the annual index was critical for the increase in basal diameter. The effect of climatic transfer distance is much more negative (triggering about 45% mortality) when transfer is toward warmer and dryer sites (at 400 m lower in altitude, +1.9 °C warmer and 16% less precipitation), than when shifting toward colder and wetter sites (400 m higher in altitude, resulting in 95% survival). Conclusions: The projected higher temperatures and lower precipitation due to climatic change will undoubtedly cause severe mortality in young A. religiosa seedlings. A 400 m shift upwards in altitude to compensate for climatic change (assisted migration) appears to be a feasible management action.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Reciprocal Common Garden Altitudinal Transplants Reveal Potential Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Abies religiosa Populations in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve Overwintering Sites

Cruzado-Vargas

Blanco‐García

Lindig‐Cisneros

et al. 2021

Forests

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“…This is in agreement with results from other studies related to local extinction, specific to the genus Abies in the Mediterranean region (Gazol et al, 2015;Navarro-Cerrillo et al, 2020) this modification may vary in strength and intensity across a species' biogeographical range. Here, we study European populations of silver fir (Abies alba or to other plant species around the world (Brooks et al, 2002;Fordham et al, 2012;Hooper et al, 2012;Sánchez-Velásquez et al, 2021;Thomas et al, 2004).…”

Section: Climate Change Impact On Potential Abies Marocana Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impact on Potential Distribution of an Endemic Species Abies marocana Trabut

Moukrim

Lahssini

Rhazi

et al. 2022

Ekológia (Bratislava)

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Global warming is becoming a major concern affecting many components of the biodiversity at a global scale and disproportionately affecting the integrity of ecosystems, particularly the habitat of endemic species. Understanding its impacts on most vulnerable species is essential to improve knowledge on the ecology of these species and for their long-term management and conservation. Abies marocana Trabut (Moroccan fir), a remarkable forest tree of the Mediterranean basin, is an endangered species that is present in discreet small areas of the Rif Mountains, which is highly vulnerable to the ongoing climate warming and facing severe anthropogenic pressures. For conservation and management purposes, our work focused on improving understanding of the impacts of future climate change on the distribution of this species through its habitat suitability modeling. The maximum entropy approach was used, which achieved good predictive abilities. Habitat suitability was identified and then predicted under current and future climate conditions. A significant change and a gradual regression of the habitat suitability to A. marocana was shown under different future climate scenarios. The magnitude of the simulated changes is important and tends to have negative consequences for Moroccan fir conservation. For this purpose, outputs from models are useful to improve our knowledge about the ecology of A. marocana, and predictive maps produced under current and future climate conditions constitute reflection tools available to scientists and managers to better integrate actual and future climate impacts into existing and upcoming management strategies to prevent any future locale extinction.

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“…The reduction in the amount of water available to plants and the increase in air temperature caused by global warming adversely impact plant species. Therefore, the adaptability of these species primarily depends on preserving genetic diversity [7,57]. According to the biogeographical distribution scale, forest endangerment is more pronounced and prevalent at the southern borders of the species' distribution than in the center [58,59].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability of Silver Fir Needle (Abies alba Mill.) Anatomical Features in the Southeast Europe Natural Populations

Popović,

Lučić,

Rakonjac

et al. 2024

Plants

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The survival of marginal/peripheral silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) populations in the broader region of Southeast Europe is endangered due to climate change and population decline. This study aimed to determine the level and pattern of variability for the anatomical traits of needles and the possibility of linking the pattern of phenotypic variability with environmental factors. In most of the analyzed needle traits, the statistically significant variability between populations was determined. According to the results of the multivariate principal component analysis, it is evident that the populations are distinct from each other, in three groups. The climatic factors Hargreaves reference evaporation, mean annual temperature, and growing degree-days, were statistically significantly correlated. The altitude and heating degree-days are statistically significantly correlated with the following three environmental factors: Hargreaves reference evaporation, mean annual temperature and growing degree-days, but negatively with others. The paper’s findings indicate significant moderate and high correlations between the anatomical traits of the needles’ central bundle diameter with the resin duct diameter, the distance between the vascular bundle and the resin duct and the epidermis thickness with cuticle, the resin duct diameter with the distance between the vascular bundle and the resin duct and the epidermis thickness with cuticle, as well as the distance between the vascular bundle and the resin duct with the hypodermis height and the epidermis thickness with cuticle. The results of agglomerative hierarchical clustering analysis, performed for anatomical and climatic traits, confirmed the existence of three groups of tested populations according to the altitude gradient. Research results provide knowledge on the diversity and structure of Abies alba populations of Southeast Europe, important for further research and guidelines for the species’ conservation and genetic variability preservation in the southern marginal distribution area and keeping in line with climate change projections.

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Fir forest demography using matrix projections: Anomaly precipitation due to climatic change decrease population viability

Cited by 5 publications

References 62 publications

Reciprocal Common Garden Altitudinal Transplants Reveal Potential Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Abies religiosa Populations in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve Overwintering Sites

Reciprocal Common Garden Altitudinal Transplants Reveal Potential Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Abies religiosa Populations in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve Overwintering Sites

Climate Change Impact on Potential Distribution of an Endemic Species Abies marocana Trabut

Variability of Silver Fir Needle (Abies alba Mill.) Anatomical Features in the Southeast Europe Natural Populations

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