Fire Suppression Resource Scarcity: Current Metrics and Future Performance Indicators

Abstract

Wildland fire occurrence is highly variable in time and space, and in the United States where total area burned can vary substantially, acquiring resources (firefighters, engines, aircraft, etc.) to respond to fire demand is an important consideration. To determine the composition and scale of this set of suppression resources managers may utilize data produced by past supply and demand information. The key challenge with this approach is that there is currently no clear system of record to track suppression resource supply and demand, and there are potential pitfalls within existing systems that may provide misleading information regarding the true levels of resource scarcity. In this manuscript, we investigate the issue of resource scarcity by examining two key resources that operations personnel have identified as both high value and scarce: type 1 firefighting crews and large airtankers. We examine data from the Resource Ordering and Status System and analyze the level of resource scarcity indicated by these data over the 2014-2018 fire seasons. We focus on data metrics with potential utility for managers responsible for annual national-level decisions regarding crew and airtanker acquisition; some of these metrics are already used to inform such decisions. We examine the limitations of each metric and suggest new metrics that could more accurately reflect true resource use and scarcity. Such metrics could lead to a substantially improved decision-making process.Forests 2020, 11, 217 2 of 20 experiences at least one period of severe fire activity during which fire suppression resources are scarce, resulting in some unfilled requests for fire suppression support, e.g., [2].Balancing the demand for fire suppression resources with budgetary constraints is an ongoing Agency priority for the USFS [3,4]. Fire suppression resource use comprises a large portion of USFS fire suppression expenses, and rising fire expenditures associated with changes in wildfire occurrence and management issues continue to challenge the Agency [5]. Currently, USFS fire suppression expenditures (2.6 billion US Dollars in Fiscal Year 2018; see [6]) represent nearly two-thirds of the total Agency budget, up from 16% in 1995 [5]; this increase in fire expenditures has hindered other Agency priorities such as protection of watersheds and cultural resources, maintenance of current programs and infrastructure for a range of multiple uses, benefits, and ecosystem services provided by the National Forests, and other forestry research and technical assistance. A long-sought "fire funding fix" was approved by the US Congress in 2018 to address the negative effects of increasing wildland fire suppression expenditures on the Agency's non-fire programs. The Wildfire Suppression Funding and Forest Management Activities Act of the 2018 Omnibus Spending Bill stabilizes Agency spending across all programs, but it requires additional accountability and related efficiency metrics reporting on fire system performance in order to maintain lawmaker support ...

COVID-19 and Forests in Canada and the United States: Initial Assessment and Beyond

“…Disease outbreaks could also affect the ability of the firefighting community to respond to multiple fires in an active season (Thompson et al, 2020). Large wildfires have been the norm in recent years and resources have been strained when several fires occur simultaneously (Belval et al, 2020). Infected personnel who leave a fire are not easily replaced or worse; infected but asymptomatic individuals may leave one fire and spread the infection to another camp.…”

Patterns and trends in simultaneous wildfire activity in the United States from 1984 to 2015

“…Moreover, statistical significance should not be conflated with practical significance (Daniel 1977), and the changes in simultaneity reported in the present study may not represent changes that are relevant to firefighting planning and management. Future work should further validate the appropriateness of using peak simultaneity to infer broader trends about resource demand (Belval et al 2020), and identify what other factors may be Fig. 8.…”

“…For example, private engines (Lyon et al 2017) and air tankers (Thompson et al 2013) have been dispatched more frequently in recent years than they have historically. Requests for large air tankers are increasingly returned as 'unable to fill', suggesting increasing levels of resource scarcity during periods of high wildfire activity (Belval et al 2020).…”

Weather, Risk, and Resource Orders on Large Wildland Fires in the Western US

“…ROSS is the primary database used to track orders and assignments of wildland fire suppression resources on large fires and intraregional resource requests (i.e., requests for resources where the resource must come from outside the home unit or a neighboring unit to respond to the incident) (https: //famit.nwcg.gov/applications/ROSS). Designed for use by dispatchers, the ROSS is the most complete source of standardized information regarding resource ordering in the US (see Belval et al [23] for data quality issues). The ICS-209 does contain information about resources committed to fires.…”

“…Bayham and Yoder [13] found that fires threatening homes are dispatched more Type 1 Crews and Engines, which reduces the likelihood that other simultaneously burning fires will receive requested resources. Belval et al (in review) [23] examined the metrics for quantifying resource use and scarcity on a national (rather than incident) level for Type 1 crews and large airtankers, finding substantial differences between patterns of Type 1 crew and large airtanker usage and scarcity.…”