First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modelling impact assessment

Abstract

Purpose: The notorious COVID 19 pandemic has caused rapid and drastic changes in cancer care all over the world in 2020. This online survey aims to assess the extent to which the pandemic has affected cancer care in gynecological oncology amongst members of Association of Gynecological Oncologists of India (AGOI), a registered professional society, founded in 1991. Methods: We developed and administered a cross-sectional, flash survey to members of The Association of Gynecological Oncologists of India (AGOI) in the first week of April 2020. Data were analyzed using Microsoft Office Excel 2016. Results were expressed as percentages of total responses excluding blank or unattended response. Overall theme-specific responses were expressed as a spectrum of finding and related inferences were drawn. Results: Among approached practitioners, 90 responded to the survey, more than 80 % were practicing consultants and more than 50 % from academic institutions. Results of the survey showed that the ongoing pandemic had severely affected gynecological oncology practice and care amongst all responders. There were modifications in diagnostic pathways, interventions and follow ups across all organ sites. There was near unanimous opinion on use of general safety measures to combat the virus and to use complete PPEs in high risk situation. There was mixed responses to alternative educational activities especially using electronic technology and distant learning methods. There was an optimism among responders with regards to the current situation normalizing in 3 to 6 months. Conclusion: This study documents the pandemic affected scenario of gynecological cancer care and perceptions of Gynecological Oncologists in India. Significant effect on all aspects of cancer care were observed. Technological learning methods both for patient care and educational activities were being adopted by many responders.

Impact of climate and public health interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective cohort study

“…Our results are concordant with 3 studies from China, 29-31 which reported no evidence for an association of epidemic growth with temperature and relative humidity, 29 but strong decreases in epidemic growth associated with public health measures. 30,31 A recent rapid systematic review concluded that the evidence to support national closure of schools to combat COVID-19 is very weak and that data from influenza outbreaks suggest that school closures could have relatively small effects on SARS-CoV-2 owing to its high transmissibility and apparent low clinical effect on school children. 32 Our results suggest that school closures are likely to have a larger effect than suggested in this review, but the clustering of school closures with other public health interventions means that we were unable to reliably estimate the independent effect of this intervention on the COVID-19 pandemic.…”

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on documented cases of COVID-19

“…NPIs have been linked to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 primarily within or from a single country [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19] , mostly focusing on the novel coronavirus outbreak in China. The majority of findings are based on transmission models where epidemiological parameters are informed by previous studies or corroborated via simulation.…”

Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in India and modelling optimal lockdown exit strategies

“…5 However, once an outbreak is underway, the timevarying effective reproduction number 'R t ' is more relevant as it tracks the subsequent changes in transmission, and can thus be used to monitor the efficacy of control measures and adjust them accordingly. [6][7][8] However, any given transmission event is reflected in the data only after a delay, which must be accounted for in the estimation of such indicators for accurate interpretation. 7 Previous studies have shown that a severe epidemic with R 0~2 •4 can be contained by combining effective quarantine, behavioral change to reduce social mixing, targeted antiviral prophylaxis, and prevaccination.…”

“…5 However, in the absence of targeted therapeutics and vaccination for COVID19, an unprecedented onethird of the world's population is currently under lockdowns -with the primary target of reducing the R t below the threshold of 1. 6,9 India responded to the COVID19 pandemic rapidly and decisively by imposing a nationwide lockdown on 25 March 2020, when there were 536 cases and 10 deaths. 3,10 This 'suppression strategy', though effective, has its limitations the social and economic cost of such populationwide social distancing is huge, which limits the longterm implementation of these measures.…”