A method for propagating and mitigating uncertainty in conceptual-level space mission design is described. The method presented forms a normative method for decision makers seeking to balance cost, risk, and performance in preliminary mission design, with an emphasis on launch vehicle selection. Models representing each of these parameters are created. The variables of the models are then classified. Probabilistic methods, Bayesian techniques, and numerical simulation are used to characterize the resulting parameters. Lastly, results of this analysis are combined with the risk tolerance of the decision maker to guide in balancing these parameters. As an example application, the investigated method is applied to two mission scenarios. The first mission scenario investigates the uncertainty in mission success for the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) mission where the launch vehicle has been selected a priori. The second mission scenario investigates balancing the set of parameters for a generic sun-synchronous low-earth orbit satellite when two possible launch vehicles are available. Use of this approach with the first example yields a surprisingly high level of risk to the mission. Use of the approach for the second example provides quantitative results in estimating the launch cost and risk of the two different options.
NomenclatureC cost, fiscal year 2004 dollars in millions (M) (FY2004$M) c exhaust velocity, m/s G(p) geometric distribution with parameter p L(µ,σ) lognormal distribution with parameters µ and σ m mass, kg N(µ,σ) normal distribution with parameters µ and σ P probability of success p variate for a geometric distribution t length of launch operations, days U(min,max) uniform distribution with parameters min and max ∆V change in velocity, m/s κ recurring cost per day of launch operations, fiscal year 2004 dollars in thousands (K) per day (FY2004$K/day) µ mean σ standard deviation subscripts: ach achievable inj injection ld launch date lv launch vehicle other_TCMs other trajectory correction maneuvers prop usable propellant loaded into spacecraft propulsion system prop_ACS usable propellant reserved for attitude control sc_wet spacecraft wet