Flood evacuation decision modeling for high risk urban area in the Philippines

Lim, Myung-Jae; Lim, Hector R.; Piantanakulchai, Mongkut

doi:10.1016/j.apmrv.2019.01.001

Cited by 21 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Shapira et al investigated the anticipated behavioral response pattern to an earthquake in Israel, in which personal and household characteristics, risk perception, previous experience, and preparedness are recognized as significant factors on choice behavior [15]. In a study conducted by Lim et al [16], individuals' decision-making in response to flood using discrete choice models including multinomial logit models was examined in areas with high risk of flood in the Philippines.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…e results indicate that age, income, home ownership, number of floors, and flood level have a significant impact on people's decisions [16]. Phiophuead and Kunsuwan identified the factors affecting the travel mode choice during evacuation in times of crisis using binary logit model analysis.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Discrete choice models basically postulate that an outcome is selected if the utility is higher than any other outcome. e advantage of this method is its simplicity and closed form estimation, in addition to its ability to capture behavioral context of the decision-making [16]. In the discrete choice models, a utility function is used to define the individual preferences for choosing an alternative.…”

Section: Discrete Choice Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Studying the Role of Behavioral Characteristics in Individuals Travel Choice Behavior in Response to Earthquake Disaster Using Discrete Choice Models

Mohajeri

Mirbaha

2021

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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The study of decision-making in response to earthquake disaster including evacuation and destination choice behavior is necessary for emergency planners in order to provide emergency traffic management and solve evacuation problems in transportation network. In this research, it is attempted to study the pattern of choice behavior in Qazvin transport network by considering physical and behavioral factors simultaneously. The required data were collected through a questionnaire from 546 inhabitants of Qazvin based on the stated preferences (SP) survey for six designated earthquake scenarios at different severities and times. The effects of socioeconomic factors, trip daily characteristics, and behavioral factors on decisions to evacuate and choose destinations are studied in this research. The binary logit model is applied for analyzing the evacuation decision, and the multinomial logit model is applied for the destination choice in response to the earthquake disaster. The binary logit model analysis with 73% correct prediction indicates that socioeconomic characteristics including age, marital status, family size, and car ownership have positive effects on evacuation choice. Furthermore, the analysis of behavioral factors indicates that moderate religious belief decreases the likelihood of evacuation, while following previous experiences, trust in acquired trainings, and following decisions made by others moderately increase the likelihood of evacuation. Also, socioeconomic and behavioral factors are the determinants of the destination decision, and the results indicate that individuals following previous experiences highly are more likely to choose gas station and relative’s home destination versus going to urban open spaces.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discrete Choice Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Studying the Role of Behavioral Characteristics in Individuals Travel Choice Behavior in Response to Earthquake Disaster Using Discrete Choice Models

Mohajeri

Mirbaha

2021

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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“…This study can be expanded by including other factors that influence the evacuation decision behavior of households in the intended area to strengthen the reliability of the constructed model. The literature mentioned other influence factors that might be necessary to formulate the prediction model such as number of years living in the residence, house ownership, number of house floor levels, type of material used to construct the house, distance from the source of flood hazard, destination type, presence of health problem, and flood level [10,32,33]. In addition, the current authors also believe that there are some potential factors related to decision-making in the context of flooding and landslides.…”

Section: Conclusion and Recommendationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Logistic Regression Analysis of Factors Affecting Travel Mode Choice for Disaster Evacuation

Phiophuead¹,

Kunsuwan²

2019

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The relationships were analyzed among the factors affecting the travel mode choice between government vehicles and private vehicles used for the evacuation of people in areas experiencing floods and landslides. The relationships were developed using a utility function to predict the probability and proportion for selection of the travel mode in future evacuations based on binary logistic regression. Three models were developed using different analytical factors based on the survey data of a sample group of people in the Mae Pong watershed, Laplae district, Uttaradit province, Thailand. It was found that the factors affecting the selection of travel mode in all three models consisted of sex, household size, families with young members, education, car ownership, experienced a disaster, recognition of shelter location, safety of evacuees while evacuating, reaching the destination quickly, convenience of vehicle access, proportional family management for evacuation, ease of the evacuation procedures of mode, and difference between travel time and walking time to the assembly point. Models 1, 2, and 3 could predict with accuracies of 78. 40, 73.46, and 75.30 percent, respectively.

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“…Evacuation of victims is the most effec-tive way to minimize casualties. The evacuation action involves many aspects related to the stages of the evacuation process [4]. Evacuation is a process of searching for or moving people who are in a dangerous place to a safer place [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Priority search simulation for flood evacuation routes using fuzzy AHP approach

Chandrawati¹,

Ratna²,

Sari³

2022

J Appl Eng Science

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A flood is an event of an increase in water volume above the standard limit due to increased rainfall, rising sea levels, storms, and others that result in submerging an area. Floods are disasters that can cause damage and loss of property, disrupt community activities and even cause loss of life. The central defiance to rescue flood victims is choosing a safe route for flood victims to reach the evacuation site. To be able to choose a safe route for flood victims, a flood evacuation simulation is made. Flood evacuation simulation is part of the game that has been created and aims to provide education about the weight of the obstacle that needs to be considered in selecting routes for flood victims. In this flood evacuation simulation, each road has obstacles. The method proposed for choosing safe routes for flood victims is the Fuzzy-based Analytical Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP). The calculation of road route weight using the Fuzzy AHP method will produce the weight for each route. The smallest weight route shows the priority route and the safe route for flood victims to pass. In this case, the Fuzzy AHP method's calculation produces the lowest weight of 0.02347, which is achieved by route 5, the route passing through S-a-b-d-D. This route is a priority route that is safe for flood victims to pass through.

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Flood evacuation decision modeling for high risk urban area in the Philippines

Cited by 21 publications

References 10 publications

Studying the Role of Behavioral Characteristics in Individuals Travel Choice Behavior in Response to Earthquake Disaster Using Discrete Choice Models

Studying the Role of Behavioral Characteristics in Individuals Travel Choice Behavior in Response to Earthquake Disaster Using Discrete Choice Models

Logistic Regression Analysis of Factors Affecting Travel Mode Choice for Disaster Evacuation

Priority search simulation for flood evacuation routes using fuzzy AHP approach

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