Flood frequency analysis for alterations of extreme maximum water levels in the Pearl River Delta

Zhang, Wei; Cao, Yu; Zhu, Yinian; Wu, Yao; Ji, Xiaomei; He, Yong; Xu, Yong; Wang, Weiguang

doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2016.11.013

Cited by 45 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Due to the decreasing residual water level slopes in the PRD, both the flood stages and water levels during low flow conditions are considerably decreased. However, due to the unevenness of the reduced water levels over the PRD, the flood risk in the upper regions of the PRD is reduced, whereas most stations located in the central and lower parts of the PRD have an increasing flood risk (see Zhang et al, ). In addition, we showed that the tidal dynamics have greatly enhanced since the 1990s, which results in strong salt intrusion into the PRD during the dry season.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies on the long‐term evolution of tidal dynamics mainly focused on tidal properties in terms of the tidal range and tidal datum level (e.g., lower low water, higher high water, and MWL). The underlying causes of historic changes can then be diagnosed either by trend tests, change‐point detections (Zhang et al, , , ), or by harmonic analysis that allows to describe the tidal behaviour using tidal species or constituents (Kukulka & Jay, ; Jay, Leffler, & Degens, , , ; Zhang et al, ). However, gradients of the tidal range or tidal datum levels are of greater practical interest because they are directly related to the magnitude of tidal dynamics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Decadal variability of tidal dynamics in the Pearl River Delta: Spatial patterns, causes, and implications for estuarine water management

Cai

Huang

Niu

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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In this study, we examine the decadal variability of tidal dynamics in terms of the tidal range in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) from the 1950s to 2016. The Mann–Kendall trend test and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method are employed to identify the long‐term trends and spatial patterns of the annual tidal range series observed at 26 stations over the whole PRD, respectively. The results show that most stations display an increasing tidal range trend, except for some stations near estuarine outlets, which corresponds to the 1st EOF mode characterized by a rapid increase of the tidal range since the 1990s. This means that the cumulative impacts of human interventions reached their peak in the 1990s, exceeding the threshold of tidal dynamics in the PRD. To quantify human‐induced alternations of the tidal range, the tidal regime shift was subsequently explored by comparing the tidal ranges of the pre‐ and post‐1992 periods reconstructed from the EOF decomposition. The mechanism causing the tidal regime shift in the PRD can be attributed to the substantially reduced residual water level slope (hence, the effective bottom friction) that greatly enhances the tidal dynamics. Our study describes the shift of spatial–temporal tidal dynamics patterns in detail, which is particularly useful to guide effective and sustainable water management in the PRD and other river deltas that are subjected to intensive human interventions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal variability of tidal dynamics in the Pearl River Delta: Spatial patterns, causes, and implications for estuarine water management

Cai

Huang

Niu

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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“…Temporal–spatial tidal forcing affects not only the transport of sediments, nutrients, and contaminants (Falcão, Santos, Drago, Serpa, & Monteiro, 2009; Bonaldo et al, 2014) in estuaries but also salt intrusion and storm surge propagation (Zhang, Savenije, Wu, Kong, & Zhu, 2011; Zhang, Savenije, Chen, & Mao, 2012; Li, Zhu, Wu, & Guo, 2014). In recent decades, intensive human activities (e.g., dredging for navigation, sand excavation, and land reclamation) have dramatically changed the morphology of many estuaries and, have caused the erosion of estuarine saltmarshes (Bendoni et al, 2016; Francalanci, Bendoni, Rinaldi, & Solari, 2013; Tommasini, Carniello, Ghinassi, Roner, & D'Alpaos, 2019) and altered the tidal regimes and hydrodynamics (Zhang et al, 2017; Mei et al, 2018; Wu et al, 2018; Zhang et al, 2018; Finotello Canestrelli, Carniello, Ghinassi, & D'Alpaos, 2019). For these reasons, the response of tidal forcing to human activities has attracted worldwide research attention.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tidal regime shift in Lingdingyang Bay, the Pearl River Delta: An identification and assessment of driving factors

Wang

Ping

Zhou

et al. 2020

Hydrological Processes

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Both natural changes (e.g., tidal forcing from the ocean and global sea level rise) and human‐induced changes (e.g., dredging for navigation, sand excavation, and land reclamation) exert considerable influences on the long‐term evolution of tidal regimes in estuaries. Evaluating the impacts of these factors on tidal‐regime shifts is particularly important for the protection and management of estuarine environments. In this study, an analytical approach is developed to investigate the impacts of estuarine morphological alterations (mean water depth and width convergence length) on tidal hydrodynamics in Lingdingyang Bay, Southeast China. Based on the observed tidal levels from two tidal gauging stations along the channel, tidal wave celerity and tidal damping/amplification rate of different tidal constituents are computed using tidal amplitude and phase of tidal constituents extracted from a standard harmonic analysis. We show that the minimum mean water depth for the whole estuary occurred in 2006, whereas a shift in tidal wave celerity for the M2 tide component occurred in 2009. As such, the study period (1990–2016) could be separated into pre‐human (1990–2009) and post‐human (2010–2016) phases. Our results show that the damping/amplification rate and celerity of the M2 tide have increased by 31% (from 7 to 9.2 m−1) and 28% (from 7 to 9 m·s−1) respectively, as a consequence of the substantial impacts of human interventions. The proposed analytical method is subsequently applied to analyse the historical development of tidal hydrodynamics and regime shifts induced by human interventions, thus linking the evolution of estuarine morphology to the dominant tidal hydrodynamics along the channel. The observed tidal regime shift is primarily caused by channel deepening, which substantially enlarged the estuary and reduced effective bottom friction resulting in faster celerity and stronger wave amplification. Our proposed method for quantifying the impacts of human interventions on tidal regime shifts can inform evidence‐based guidelines for evaluating hydraulic responses to future engineering activities.

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“…Water level is an important hydrological variable for surface water studies and flood management, especially in estuary basins with low elevation (Yamazaki et al, ; W. Zhang et al, ). It also has some important implications for dike design, ecosystem stability and water quality management (Assani, Landry, Biron, & Frenette, ; G. Xu et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric and human‐induced impacts on temporal variability of water level extremes in the Taihu Basin, China

Wang

Tabari

et al. 2019

J Flood Risk Management

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Understanding the variation of water level extremes with their potential drivers can provide insights for flood risk management. In this study, temporal variability of water level extremes is investigated across the plain river network region of the Taihu Basin. The driving force analysis on water level extremes is mainly conducted for atmospheric (rainfall, climatic index, and tide) and anthropogenic forcing. The quantile perturbation method is employed to examine variability of extreme values and the Spearman correlation analysis to identify potential drivers of extreme water level variability. Considering water level extremes in all seasons, the 1990s have statistically significant positive anomalies, while the late 1960s to the 1970s and the 2000s have significant negative anomalies. The oscillation pattern of anomaly in summer has a higher variability than that in the other three seasons. Significant correlations are detected between the anomalies of water level extremes and rainfall (tide level) during summer and winter. Water level extremes in summer and winter have a strong connection to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation, respectively. Conversely, no consistent significant correlations between water level extremes and climatic indices are found in spring and autumn, which is mainly related to hydraulic structure construction and operation. K E Y W O R D Sdriving forces, quantile perturbation method, the Taihu Basin, variability, water level extremes

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Flood frequency analysis for alterations of extreme maximum water levels in the Pearl River Delta

Cited by 45 publications

References 45 publications

Decadal variability of tidal dynamics in the Pearl River Delta: Spatial patterns, causes, and implications for estuarine water management

Decadal variability of tidal dynamics in the Pearl River Delta: Spatial patterns, causes, and implications for estuarine water management

Tidal regime shift in Lingdingyang Bay, the Pearl River Delta: An identification and assessment of driving factors

Atmospheric and human‐induced impacts on temporal variability of water level extremes in the Taihu Basin, China

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