Flood magnitudes in the Tagus River (Iberian Peninsula) and its stochastic relationship with daily North Atlantic Oscillation since mid-19th Century

Salgueiro, Ana Rita; Machado, María José; Barriendos, Mariano; Pereira, Henrique Garcia; Benito, Gerardo

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.08.008

Cited by 33 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…In 84% of the cases, flash floods were related to negative monthly NAO indices, showing in six cases moderate to intense negative values (with NAO < À1). Our observations are in agreement with results from other mountain catchments in central Spain (e.g., Benito et al, 2003aBenito et al, ,b, 2005Benito et al, , 2008 and support the idea that intense hydrometeorological activity in central Spain is related to the antecedent NAO mode (Cortesi et al, 2012;Salgueiro et al, 2013;Trigo et al, 2004). The weather circulation patterns related with flash floods dated in this contribution confirm the casuistry associated with flash flood events in the study area, which was slightly weighted toward Meridional circulation patterns.…”

supporting

confidence: 92%

Unravelling past flash flood activity in a forested mountain catchment of the Spanish Central System

Ballesteros‐Cánovas

Rodríguez-Morata

Garófano‐Gómez

et al. 2015

Journal of Hydrology

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Flash floods represent one of the most common natural hazards in mountain catchments, and are fre-quent in Mediterranean environments. As a result of the widespread lack of reliable data on past events, the understanding of their spatio-temporal occurrence and their climatic triggers remains rather limited. Here, we present a dendrogeomorphic reconstruction of past flash flood activity in the Arroyo de los Puentes stream (Sierra de Guadarrama, Spanish Central System). We analyze a total of 287 increment cores from 178 disturbed Scots pine trees (Pinus sylvestris L.) which yielded indications on 212 growth disturbances related to past flash flood impact. In combination with local archives, meteorological data, annual forest management records and highly-resolved terrestrial data (i.e., LiDAR data and aerial imag-ery), the dendrogeomorphic time series allowed dating 25 flash floods over the last three centuries, with a major event leaving an intense geomorphic footprint throughout the catchment in 1936. The analysis of meteorological records suggests that the rainfall thresholds of flash floods vary with the seasonality of events. Dated flash floods in the 20th century were primarily related with synoptic troughs owing to the arrival of air masses from north and west on the Iberian Peninsula during negative indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The results of this study contribute considerably to a better understanding of hazards related with hydrogeomorphic processes in central Spain in general and in the Sierra de Guadarrama National Park in particular.

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supporting

confidence: 92%

Unravelling past flash flood activity in a forested mountain catchment of the Spanish Central System

Ballesteros‐Cánovas

Rodríguez-Morata

Garófano‐Gómez

et al. 2015

Journal of Hydrology

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“…In the Iberian Peninsula, the negative mode of the NAO index during the autumn and winter months has a strong impact on flooding at seasonal, monthly and even weekly scales (Salgueiro et al, 2013). The link between the NAO index and the frequency of extreme events in Iberia can also be detected through historical documents (Benito et al, 2003b, Ortega andGarzón, 2004;Benito et al, 2008) as well as in annually resolved paleoflood records from lakes (Corella et al, 2014).…”

Section: Atmospheric Circulation Climate Drivers and Floodingmentioning

confidence: 97%

Holocene flooding and climate change in the Mediterranean

Benito

Macklin

Zielhofer

et al. 2015

CATENA

Self Cite

173

124

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Mediterranean fluvial hydrology is characterised by decadal-to-multi-centennial length wet and dry episodes with abrupt transitions related to changes in atmospheric circulation. Since the mid-1990s site-based flood chronologies from slackwater deposits in bedrock rivers and regionally aggregated flood histories from alluvial deposits have developed increasingly higher resolution chronological frameworks, although regional coverage is still uneven. This paper analyses the spatial and temporal distribution of extreme Holocene hydrological events recorded in fluvial stratigraphy in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal), southern France, southern Italy, Northern Africa (Morocco and Tunisia) and eastern Mediterranean (Greece, Crete, Turkey, Cyprus and Israel). This study constitutes the most comprehensive investigation of Holocene river flooding ever undertaken in the Mediterranean and is based on the analysis of 515 14 C and 53 OSL dates. It reveals that flood periods in different regions cluster into distinct time intervals, although region-wide flooding episodes can be identified at

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“…Flood-producing atmospheric circulation patterns are closely related to the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), with a low (negative) NAO index being associated with suppressed westerlies and storm track moving southerly toward the Mediterranean Sea (Walker and Bliss, 1932;van Loon and Rogers, 1978). Recent studies on the influence of the NAO on the Tagus River flooding show evidence that the largest floods (average recurrence intervals > 25 yr) are associated with negative mode of NAO during the 20-25 days (of a total 40-day period length) before the flood peak (Salgueiro et al, 2013). Analysis of flood response under natural and dam-regulated regimes (before and after the construction of reservoirs ca.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most studies linking NAO index with floods (Benito et al, 2008;Machado et al, 2011;Silva et al, 2012) have used seasonal and monthly correlations leading to lack of significant connections and/or a delayed response between oscillation mode and hydrological event. Floods are produced by rainfall excess with an immediate hydrological response, requiring a daily to monthly resolution (Salgueiro et al, 2013). Figure 1b shows the relationship between the average winter (DJF) NAO index reconstructed by Luterbacher et al (1999Luterbacher et al ( , 2002 since AD 1500 and the maximum discharges recorded during those months from instrumental (gauge stations) and documentary sources for the Tagus River at Aranjuez.…”

Section: Climatic Environmental and Human Drivers Of Flood Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling

Machado

Botero

Cruz

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

118

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Abstract. Historical records are an important source of information on extreme and rare floods and fundamental to establish a reliable flood return frequency. The use of long historical records for flood frequency analysis brings in the question of flood stationarity, since climatic and land-use conditions can affect the relevance of past flooding as a predictor of future flooding. In this paper, a detailed 400 yr flood record from the Tagus River in Aranjuez (central Spain) was analysed under stationary and non-stationary flood frequency approaches, to assess their contribution within hazard studies. Historical flood records in Aranjuez were obtained from documents (Proceedings of the City Council, diaries, chronicles, memoirs, etc.), epigraphic marks, and indirect historical sources and reports. The water levels associated with different floods (derived from descriptions or epigraphic marks) were computed into discharge values using a one-dimensional hydraulic model. Secular variations in flood magnitude and frequency, found to respond to climate and environmental drivers, showed a good correlation between high values of historical flood discharges and a negative mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Over the systematic gauge record , an abrupt change on flood magnitude was produced in 1957 due to constructions of three major reservoirs in the Tagus headwaters (Bolarque, Entrepeñas and Buendia) controlling 80 % of the watershed surface draining to Aranjuez. Two different models were used for the flood frequency analysis: (a) a stationary model estimating statistical distributions incorporating imprecise and categorical data based on maximum likelihood estimators, and (b) a time-varying model based on "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS) modelling, which incorporates external covariates related to climate variability (NAO index) and catchment hydrology factors (in this paper a reservoir index; RI). Flood frequency analysis using documentary data (plus gauged records) improved the estimates of the probabilities of rare floods (return intervals of 100 yr and higher). Under nonstationary modelling flood occurrence associated with an exceedance probability of 0.01 (i.e. return period of 100 yr) has changed over the last 500 yr due to decadal and multidecadal variability of the NAO. Yet, frequency analysis under stationary models was successful in providing an average discharge around which value flood quantiles estimated by non-stationary models fluctuate through time.

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Flood magnitudes in the Tagus River (Iberian Peninsula) and its stochastic relationship with daily North Atlantic Oscillation since mid-19th Century

Cited by 33 publications

References 33 publications

Unravelling past flash flood activity in a forested mountain catchment of the Spanish Central System

Unravelling past flash flood activity in a forested mountain catchment of the Spanish Central System

Holocene flooding and climate change in the Mediterranean

Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling

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