Flood risk assessment methodology for planning under climate change scenarios and the corresponding change in land cover

Abstract

Projected climate change impacts on the hydrological regime and corresponding flood risks were examined for the years 2030 (near-term) and 2050 (long-term), under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 (moderate) and 8.5 (high) emission scenarios. The United States Army Corps of Engineers' (USACE) Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System was used to simulate the complete hydrologic processes of the various dendritic watershed systems and USACEs' Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System hydraulic model was used for the two-dimensional unsteady flow flood calculations. Climate projections are based on recent global climate model simulations developed for the International Panel on Climate Change, Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. Hydrographs for frequent (high-recurrence interval) storms were derived from 30-year historical daily precipitation data and decadal projections for both time frames and RCP scenarios. Since the climate projections for each scenario only represented ten years of data, 100-year or 500-year storms cannot be derived. Hence, this novel approach of identifying frequent storms is used as an indicator to compare across the various time frames and climate scenarios. Hydrographs were used to generate inundation maps and results are used to identify vulnerabilities and formulate adaptation strategies to flooding at 43 locations worldwide.

The Potential Use of the SCS-CN Method to Estimate Extreme Floods in the West Bank Data-scarce Catchments

“…Worldwide, flood is one of the most frequent and destructive natural hazards, which in most cases, leads to catastrophic consequences to natural resources, and loss of human beings and assets (Khan et al, 2011;Jonkman & Dawson, 2012, Yashon & Ryutaro, 2014Kazakis et al, 2015;Jain et al, 2018). Urbanization in many regions of the world will amplify potential flood hazards, which implies pressure on landuse planning (Yashon & Ryutaro, 2014;Hanif et al, 2019). Urbanization has direct impacts on hydrological characteristics (e.g., infiltration decrease, runoff increase) that will increase the frequency and magnitude of floods (Alaghmand et al, 2010).…”

Comparison of Two Hydrological Models, HEC-HMS and SWAT in Runoff Estimation: Application to Huai Bang Sai Tropical Watershed, Thailand

“…Water resource management and operational hydrology require reliable predictions of water balance components including runoff, evapotranspiration, infiltration, and groundwater flow. Hydrologic models are used for the planning of water resources [1][2][3], for flood predictions [4][5][6], to understand the hydrology due to changes in land use and climate [7,8], for water quality monitoring [9], to formulate aquifer recharge management strategies [10], to design hydraulic infrastructure [11], for ecological restoration design [12], etc. The evolvement of computer technology and programming has benefited researchers, academia, and commercial-based companies to develop different software to simulate watershed processes.…”

Urban flood risk analysis of buildings using HEC-RAS 2D in climate change framework

“…Mean rainfall, mean water level, mean annual runoff, and temperature would increase in the future. Hanif et al (2020) examined flood risks for 2030 and 2050, respectively, under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 using HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS. The study also provided potential adaptation strategies.…”