Flood Vulnerability Evaluation and Prediction Using Multi-temporal Data: A Case in Tangerang, Indonesia

Abstract

Land-use change has an impact on growing physical flood vulnerability. Geographic Information System (GIS) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) approaches are increasingly being used for flood vulnerability assessments. However, none has used timeseries land cover data for evaluation and rainfall over various return periods for prediction simultaneously, especially in Indonesia. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate and predict physical flood vulnerability using time-series land cover data and rainfall data over various return periods. Eight criteria were considered in the assessment: elevation, topographic wetness index, slope, distance to the river, distance downstream, soil type, rainfall, and land cover. The criteria weights were determined using the AHP method based on expert judgment. The multi-criteria model was built and validated using flood inundation data. Based on the validated model, the effect of land cover changes on flood vulnerability was evaluated. The flood vulnerability changes were also predicted based on rainfall over various return periods. The evaluation and prediction models have shown reliable findings. The criterion elevation and distance to the river significantly influenced the physical flood vulnerability by 41% and 20%. The evaluation model showed a strong correlation between the built-up area and the area with high flood vulnerability (r 2 = 0.96). Furthermore, the model predicted an inundation area expansion for rainfall over various return periods. Further research using spatial data with higher resolution and more advanced validation techniques is needed to improve the model accuracy.

Evaluating flash flood vulnerability using combined deterministic and parametric model: A case in the upper Ciliwung watershed, Indonesia

“…These findings serve as a basis for predicting the future distribution of hydrological parameters resulting from ongoing land use changes. Santosa et al [22] found that land use change directly contributes to increased flood vulnerability in a watershed. Wardhani et al [16] observed that land use change had occurred in a watershed adjacent to the study area, mostly converting land into settlements and agricultural areas.…”

Analysis of the Post-Cyclonic Physical Flood Susceptibility and Changes of Mangrove Forest Area Using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Process and Geospatial Analysis in Indian Sundarbans

“…For the composite flood susceptibility index of the selected study area, five categories-very high, high, moderate, low, and very low-of flood susceptibility were recognized. A weighted overlay analysis was assigned here following the techniques used by various studies, including [71][72][73][74][75][76][77], to determine the flood vulnerability and susceptibility in GIS, specifically in coastal and cyclone-prone areas. According to its definition, weighted overlay is an approach to modeling suitability.…”