Flooding of July 6–7, 2012, in the town of Krymsk

Kotlyakov, V. M.; Desinov, L. V.; Dolgov, Sergey; Коронкевич, Н. И.; Лихачева, Э. А.; Маккавеев, А. Н.; Medvedev, A. A.; Рудаков, В. А.

doi:10.1134/s2079970513010061

Cited by 18 publications

(10 citation statements)

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“…Hydrogeological and other climate-related hazards, such as floods, storms, mass movement, and wildfires, cause extensive damages [1][2][3] and a noteworthy number of fatalities around the world [4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Between 1988 and 2017, they accounted for US$2245 billion or 77% of the total damage costs amongst all types of disasters [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrogeological and Climatological Risks Perception in a Multi-Hazard Environment: The Case of Greece

Papagiannaki

Diakakis

Kotroni

et al. 2019

Water

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Climate-related hazards, such as wildfires and hydrogeological phenomena, cause extensive damages and casualties around the world. Despite the recent advances and technologies for risk mitigation, it is acknowledged that public risk perception is a critical factor for these tools to succeed. Greece and the broader Eastern Mediterranean is an area where, despite the diversity of natural disasters, there is a lack of understanding of the hazard types that people are most concerned with and how they measure against other groups of hazards (i.e., geophysical). This work uses an online survey targeting Greek people, aiming to provide a better understanding of their perception of different natural hazards. Statistical results show that people consider climate-related hazards less dangerous and likely to occur than earthquakes, which occur often as zero-impact events. Laymen may thus underestimate certain risks, which may inhibit appropriate preparation. Disaster experience was found to increase threat perceptions and to motivate preparedness. However, in what concerns climate-related hazards, the effect of experience may fade out over time. Awareness activities were found to associate with higher emergency response efficacy. Males exhibit lower risk perception and higher coping appraisals. However, prioritization of risks is almost identical between genders. Implications for risk management are discussed.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrogeological and Climatological Risks Perception in a Multi-Hazard Environment: The Case of Greece

Papagiannaki

Diakakis

Kotroni

et al. 2019

Water

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“…Understanding the Krymsk precipitation extreme is not only important because of its unprecedented magnitude 9 , but also because the event is representative of a broad class of intense convective systems affecting Black Sea and Mediterranean (BSM) coastal regions during summertime (Supplementary Discussion 2), when precipitation is dominated by infrequent intense events 16 . To simulate the response of such convective systems to climatic changes, accurately resolving local storm dynamics is essential 17 .…”

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confidence: 99%

Crucial role of Black Sea warming in amplifying the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme

et al. 2015

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Over the past 60 years, both average daily precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation have increased in many regions 1-3 . Part of these changes, or even individual events 4,5 , have been attributed to anthropogenic warming 6,7 . Over the Black Sea and Mediterranean region, the potential for extreme summertime convective precipitation has grown 8 alongside substantial sea surface temperature increase. A particularly devastating convective event experienced in that region was the July 2012 precipitation extreme near the Black Sea town of Krymsk 9 . Here we study the e ect of sea surface temperature (SST) increase on convective extremes within the region, taking the Krymsk event as a showcase example. We carry out ensemble sensitivity simulations with a convection-permitting atmospheric model and show the crucial role of SST increase in the extremeness of the event. The enhancement of lower tropospheric instability due to the current warmer Black Sea allows deep convection to be triggered, increasing simulated precipitation by more than 300% relative to simulations with SSTs characteristic of the early 1980s. A highly nonlinear precipitation response to incremental SST increase suggests that the Black Sea has exceeded a regional threshold for the intensification of convective extremes. The physical mechanism we identify indicates that Black Sea and Mediterranean coastal regions may face abrupt amplifications of convective precipitation under continued SST increase, and illustrates the limitations of thermodynamical bounds for estimating the temperature scaling of convective extremes.Extreme precipitation responds sensitively to both dynamical and thermodynamical forcings 10-12 . Changes in precipitation extremes can occur owing to changes in evaporation, the increased saturation vapour pressure in a warmer climate 13 , and changes in storm dynamics 12 . Global climate models project increased heavy precipitation, mainly over the tropics and high latitudes 14,15 . As temperature increases, large-scale precipitation extremes tend to scale at about 7% K −1 , along the thermodynamical bounds given by the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation 3 . Convective extremes, however, are strongly influenced by mesoscale dynamics and may scale well above the CC rate 10,11 . Local factors, such as orography and moisture availability, can also impact the convective response to temperature increase.The Krymsk precipitation extreme saw a daily precipitation total that exceeded all previous annual daily maxima since 1936 by a factor of two (Fig. 1a), and a flash flood that killed over 170 people 9 . On the basis of statistical evidence from the pre-2012 record,

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“…The precipitation affecting the Krymsk region was associated with two waves of convection, the first coming early on 6 July and the second the following night. Total precipitation of 171 mm fell in 24 h at Krymsk, a station where daily precipitation had previously not exceeded 80 mm [ Kotlyakov et al , ]. The upper‐level synoptic pattern that accompanied the Krymsk event fits well with the pattern, identified by Funatsu et al [], that typically accompanies extreme summertime precipitation in the Mediterranean region [ Meredith et al , ].…”

Section: The July 2012 Krymsk Precipitation Extremementioning

confidence: 75%

“…In our study, a consistent source of uplift is provided by the coastal orography, which presents an abrupt barrier roughly perpendicular to the onshore flow. This is key to the high local intensities [ Kotlyakov et al , ] observed during the event. As the hourly precipitation intensity increases though, the outflow associated with increasing low‐level cooling extends out over the sea, behaving like a gravity current [ Corfidi , ] emanating from the coastal orography.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Krymsk precipitation extreme [ Kotlyakov et al , ; Meredith et al , ] occurred on the 6/7 July 2012, along the north‐eastern coast of the Black Sea. In the presence of a quasi‐stationary cold upper low, a slow moving cyclone tracked across the eastern Black Sea, advecting warm and moist air toward the foothills of the Caucasus mountains (Figure ).…”

Section: The July 2012 Krymsk Precipitation Extremementioning

confidence: 99%

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Evidence for added value of convection‐permitting models for studying changes in extreme precipitation

et al. 2015

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Climate model resolution can affect both the climate change signal and present-day representation of extreme precipitation. The need to parametrize convective processes raises questions about how well the response to warming of convective precipitation extremes is captured in such models. In particular, coastal precipitation extremes can be sensitive to sea surface temperature (SST) increase. Taking a recent coastal precipitation extreme as a showcase example, we explore the added value of convection-permitting models by comparing the response of the extreme precipitation to a wide range of SST forcings in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations using parametrized and explicit convection. Compared at the same spatial scale, we find that the increased local intensities of vertical motion and precipitation in the convection-permitting simulations play a crucial role in shaping a strongly nonlinear extreme precipitation response to SST increase, which is not evident when convection is parametrized. In the convection-permitting simulations, SST increase causes precipitation intensity to increase only until a threshold is reached, beyond which further SST increase does not enhance the precipitation. This flattened response results from an improved representation of convective downdrafts and near-surface cooling, which damp the further intensification of precipitation by stabilizing the lower troposphere locally and also create cold pools that cause subsequent convection to be triggered at sea, rather than by the coastal orography. These features are not well represented in the parametrized convection simulations, resulting in precipitation intensity having a much more linear response to increasing SSTs.

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Flooding of July 6–7, 2012, in the town of Krymsk

Cited by 18 publications

References 0 publications

Hydrogeological and Climatological Risks Perception in a Multi-Hazard Environment: The Case of Greece

Hydrogeological and Climatological Risks Perception in a Multi-Hazard Environment: The Case of Greece

Crucial role of Black Sea warming in amplifying the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme

Evidence for added value of convection‐permitting models for studying changes in extreme precipitation

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