Whether changes in animal behavior allow for short‐term earthquake predictions has been debated for a long time. Before, during and after the 2016/2017 earthquake sequence in Italy, we deployed bio‐logging tags to continuously observe the activity of farm animals (cows, dogs, and sheep) close to the epicenter of the devastating magnitude M6.6 Norcia earthquake (Oct–Nov 2016) and over a subsequent longer observation period (Jan–Apr 2017). Relating 5,304 (in 2016) and 12,948 (in 2017) earthquakes with a wide magnitude range (0.4 ≤ M ≤ 6.6) to continuously measured animal activity, we detected how the animals collectively reacted to earthquakes. We also found consistent anticipatory activity prior to earthquakes during times when the animals were in a building (stable), but not during their time on a pasture. We detected these anticipatory patterns not only in periods with high, but also in periods of low seismic activity. Earthquake anticipation times (1–20 hr) are negatively correlated with the distance between the farm and earthquake hypocenters. Our study suggests that continuous bio‐logging of animal collectives has the potential to provide statistically reliable patterns of pre‐seismic activity that could yield valuable insights for short‐term earthquake forecasting. Based on a priori model parameters, we provide empirical threshold values for pre‐seismic animal activities to be used in real‐time observation stations.

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Whether changes in animal behavior allow for short-term earthquake predictions has been debated for a long time. During the 2016/2017 earthquake sequence in Italy, we instrumentally observed the activity of farm animals (cows, dogs, sheep) close to the epicenter of the devastating magnitude M6.6 Norcia earthquake (Oct-Nov 2016) and over a subsequent longer observation period (Jan-Apr 2017). Relating 5304 (in 2016) and 12948 (in 2017) earthquakes with a wide magnitude range (0.4 ≤ M ≤ 6.6) to continuously measured animal activity, we detected how the animals collectively reacted to earthquakes. We also found consistent anticipatory activity prior to earthquakes during times when the animals were in a stable, but not during their time on a pasture. We detect these anticipatory patterns not only in periods with high, but also in periods of low seismic activity. Earthquake anticipation times (1-20hrs) are negatively correlated with the distance between the farm and earthquake hypocenters. Our study suggests that continuous instrumental monitoring of animal collectives has the potential to provide statistically reliable patterns of pre-seismic activity that could allow for short-term earthquake forecasting. Short title: Earthquake anticipation by farm animalsOne Sentence Summary: A collective of domestic animals repeatedly showed unusually high activity levels before earthquakes, with anticipation times (1-20h) negatively related to distance from epicenters (5-28km).

На основе географо-гидрологического метода с использованием ГИС-технологий и статистических методов выполнен региональный пространственно-временной анализ процессов формирования максимального стока. Дана характеристика природных и антропогенных предпосылок формирования наводнений. Сделан вывод о ведущей роли природных факторов в образовании наводнений, прежде всего экстремально высоких осадков, участившихся в последние десятилетия. Выявлены особенности пространственно-временной изменчивости максимальных уровней воды. Моделирование зон затоплений выполнено с помощью геоинформационной системы и цифровой модели рельефа. Расчетные уровни воды устанавливались по многолетним рядам наблюдений, а при их отсутствии -по меткам высоких вод. В ряде населенных пунктов осуществлена реконструкция экстремальных наводнений, предложены рекомендации по снижению возможного ущерба при их прохождении в будущем.Ключевые слова: максимальный сток, экстремальное количество осадков, моделирование зон затоплений, многолетние ряды наблюдений, рекомендации по снижению ущерба наводнений.

Abstract. Ice cover on lakes is subject to atmospheric forcing from above and the influence of water dynamics and heat flux from below. One characteristic example of these influences in some large lakes, such as Lake Baikal in Russia, are the giant ice rings and the associated eddies under the ice cover. In April 2020 a giant ice ring appeared in southern Baikal, and a lens-like eddy was detected below the ice. We analysed the temporal changes of ice cover using satellite images from multiple satellite missions – MODIS on Terra and Aqua, Sentinel-1 SAR, Sentinel 2 MSI, Landsat 8, PlanetScope, satellite photography from the International Space Station, and radar altimetry data from Jason-3. Satellite imagery and meteorological data show unusual temporal changes of ice colour in April 2020, which were explained by water infiltration into the ice followed by the competing influences of cold air from above and the warm eddy below the ice. Tracking of ice floe displacement also makes it possible to estimate eddy currents and their influence on the upper water layer. Multi-satellite data contribute to a better understanding of the development of ice cover in the presence of eddies, the role of eddies in horizontal and vertical heat and mass exchange, and their impact on the chemistry and biology of the lakes and on human activity.