Floods and Climate Change: Interactions and Impacts

Abstract

Whether the floods experienced during the last decade in Germany and in other European countries are triggered or worsened by human activities has been the subject of a great deal of debate. Possible anthropogenic activities leading to increased flood risk include river regulation measures, intensified land use and forestry, and emissions of greenhouse gases causing a change in the global climate. This article discusses the latter by reviewing the existing knowledge on the subject. First, the relevance, capabilities, and limitations of climate models for the simulation and analysis of flood risk under aspects of the anthropogenic climate change are described. Special consideration is given here to differences between the "typical" spatial scale of climate models and hydrological flood models. Second, observations of trends in climate variables relevant for river flooding issues are summarized. Special emphasis is put on the Rhine and other German catchment areas. Third, the possibilities of modeling the different parts of the "cascade of flood risk" are summarized, introducing the special features of meteorological, hydrological, and river hydraulic models.

Regional assessment of forest effect on watershed hydrology: Slovakia as a case study

“…Cameron et al (2000) stated in this regard that climate change is expected to have serious implications for flood frequency. Bronstert (2003) is more reserved and he suggested that while in some areas there is evidence of increased flood risk from climate change, in other areas such evidence is missing and further development of hydrological catchment models and tools for incorporating stochastic components into such models is needed to complement our current knowledge. Moreover, as weight assignment used in this study was based on the expert panel approach, development in scientific opinions, and assumingly increasing frequency of floods in the future, may affect experts' perception and thus alter the outputs.…”

Nature-based solutions to address global societal challenges

“…In the early 2000s, terms such as hazard mitigation and damage reduction were used to emphasise the importance of ecosystems and their services in disaster risk reduction (Hook, 2000;Kreimer & Arnold, 2000;Bronstert, 2003). The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment stated that "while well-managed ecosystems reduce risks and vulnerability, poorly managed systems can exacerbate them by increasing risks of flood, drought, crop failure, or disease" (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005).…”

A klímaváltozás emberi jogi aspektusai

“…For Europe, a major uncertainty is the future behaviour of the NAO and North Atlantic THC. Also important, but not specific to Europe, are the uncertainties associated with the still insufficient resolution of GCMs (e.g., Etchevers et al, 2002;Bronstert, 2003), and with downscaling techniques and regional climate models (Mearns et al, 2003;Haylock et al, 2006;Déqué et al, 2007). Uncertainties in climate impact assessment also stem from the uncertainties of land-use change and socioeconomic development following European policies (e.g., CAP), and European Directives (Water Framework Directive, European Maritime Strategy Directive).…”