Floods in a Changing Climate

Andersen, Theresa K.; Shepherd, J. Marshall

doi:10.1111/gec3.12025

Cited by 59 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 158 publications

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“…Similarly, in Chatham, a coastal county, 2 floods were recorded in a 10-year period from 1975 to 1984 (1980s), whereas 12 floods affected the county in 8 years from 2005 to 2012. This is consistent with the literature assertions that flood frequency and rainfall intensity will increase as the climate warms (Andersen & Shepherd, 2013). Droughts were also frequent in recent decades.…”

Section: Extreme Climatic Hazardssupporting

confidence: 93%

Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

Shepherd

Gaither

2015

Applied Geography

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Section: Extreme Climatic Hazardssupporting

confidence: 93%

Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

Shepherd

Gaither

2015

Applied Geography

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“…Furthermore, these effects could be maladaptive or adaptive depending on the climategrowth relationships of interest. In the case of Freshwater Drum in southeastern USA, there is increasing evidence that both the timing and magnitude of river flood pulses is changing (Lins and Slack 1999;Easterling et al 2000;Andersen and Marshall Shepherd 2013). Should peak floods continue to arise during historically nonseasonal periods (e.g., during mid to late summer due to increased variability in precipitation or hurricane patterns), the growth rates of riverine drum will probably decline.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Body Type Influences Climate–Growth Relationships of Freshwater Drum

Richard

Rypel

2013

Trans Am Fish Soc

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Climate-growth relationships of fish are of increasing research interest. However, few studies have attempted to characterize the extent to which climate-growth relationships may diverge across fundamentally different types of environments. The goal of this study was to examine the effects of climate variability (i.e., temperature, precipitation, global climate indices) on the growth of Freshwater Drum Aplodinotus grunniens and determine the extent to which these relationships differ between lotic and lentic habitats. Freshwater Drum were collected from five river and five reservoir environments in Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi. Tree-ring techniques were used to standardize annual growth for age (measured using interannual growth increments from otolith sagittae) and growth indices were correlated to annual thermal, hydrologic, and global climate indices. Freshwater Drum expressed distinct and significant climate-growth relationships by water body type. The general pattern observed was that annual drum growth in rivers was significantly correlated to days of year of maximum flow while annual drum growth in reservoirs was significantly correlated to annual variation in number of growing degree-days (GDD). Furthermore, the strength of growth-GDD correlations for drum increased predictably alongside hydraulic retention time of reservoirs. This study reveals that water body type can govern climate-growth relationships in fish and suggests biologists need to be wary of assuming that patterns documented in one population would be wholly applicable to another.

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“…This is especially true for semi-arid regions such as the Middle East. Additionally, it is widely expected that climate change will increase the frequency of severe rain events in many regions around the world (Milly et al 2001 [2]; Wagener et al 2010 [3]; Kundzewicz et al 2010 [4]; Trenberth, 2011 [5]; Zwiers et al 2013 [6]; Andersen et al 2013 [7]). In the Mediterranean basin, these effects could lead to increasing droughts on one hand (Törnros and Menzel, 2014 [8]; Hoerling et al 2012 [9]; Dai, 2011 [10]; Smiatek et al 2011 [11]; 2013 [12]; 2014 [13]) and intensified flood events on the other (Yosef et al 2009 [14]; Samuels et al 2011 [15]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing One-Way and Two-Way Coupled Hydrometeorological Forecasting Systems for Flood Forecasting in the Mediterranean Region

et al. 2016

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Abstract:A pair of hydro-meteorological modeling systems were calibrated and evaluated for the Ayalon basin in central Israel to assess the advantages and limitations of one-way versus two-way coupled modeling systems for flood prediction. The models used included the Hydrological Engineering Center-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Hydro modeling system. The models were forced by observed, interpolated precipitation from rain-gauges within the basin, and with modeled precipitation from the WRF atmospheric model. Detailed calibration and evaluation was carried out for two major winter storms in January and December 2013. Then, both modeling systems were executed and evaluated in an operational mode for the full 2014/2015 rainy season. Outputs from these simulations were compared to observed measurements from the hydrometric station at the Ayalon basin outlet. Various statistical metrics were employed to quantify and analyze the results: correlation, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency coefficient. Foremost, the results presented in this study highlight the sensitivity of hydrological responses to different sources of simulated and observed precipitation data, and demonstrate improvement, although not significant, at the Hydrological response, like simulated hydrographs. With observed precipitation data both calibrated models closely simulated the observed hydrographs. The two-way coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro modeling system produced improved both the precipitation and hydrological simulations as compared to the one-way WRF simulations. Findings from this study, as well as previous studies, suggest that the use of two-way atmospheric-hydrological coupling has the potential to improve precipitation and, therefore, hydrological forecasts for early flood warning applications. However, more research needed in order to better understand the land-atmosphere coupling mechanisms driving hydrometeorological processes on a wider variety precipitation and terrestrial hydrologic systems.

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Floods in a Changing Climate

Cited by 59 publications

References 158 publications

Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

Water Body Type Influences Climate–Growth Relationships of Freshwater Drum

Comparing One-Way and Two-Way Coupled Hydrometeorological Forecasting Systems for Flood Forecasting in the Mediterranean Region

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