Floods in a changing climate: a review

Abstract

This paper begins with an analysis of flooding as a natural disaster for which the solutions to the environmental, social and economic problems are essentially those of identifying and overcoming hazards and vulnerability, reducing risk and damaging consequences. Long-term solutions to flooding problems, especially in a changing climate, should be sought in the wider context of developing more sustainable social organization, economics and technology. Then, developments are described of how scientific understanding, supported by practical modelling, is leading to predictions of how human-induced changes to climatic and geological conditions are likely to influence flooding over at least the next 300 years, through their influences on evaporation, precipitation, run-off, wind storm and sea-level rise. Some of the outstanding scientific questions raised by these problems are highlighted, such as the statistical and deterministic prediction of extreme events, the understanding and modelling of mechanisms that operate on varying length- and time-scales, and the complex interactions between biological, ecological and physical problems. Some options for reducing the impact of flooding by new technology include both improved prediction and monitoring with computer models, and remote sensing, flexible and focused warning systems, and permanent and temporary flood-reduction systems.

Reconceptualising coarse sediment delivery problems in rivers as catchment-scale and diffuse

“…Middelkoop et al, 2001;Milley et al, 2002) and recent major flooding in the UK has raised the concern that climate change is causing increases in the frequency and magnitude of high discharge events (e.g. Hunt, 2002). Although current evidence that the magnitude/frequency of high flows is increasing is not clear (Robson, 2002), observations that: (a) climate variability is seen to have a very strong impact on flood records (e.g.…”

A combined hydraulic and toxicological approach to assess re-suspended sediments during simulated flood events—part II: an interdisciplinary experimental methodology

“…One of the major concerns regarding the remobilization of sediments is the occurrence of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall. These result in increasingly frequent and strong flood events that are one of the potential consequences of global climate change (Hunt 2002;Ikeda et al 2005;Kay et al 2006;Palmer et al 2008;Najjar et al 2010). During the past decade, an increasing number of extreme weather events occurred around the globe.…”

Climate Change: Potential Effects on Demands for US Military Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response

“…River flooding may be the result of a projected increase in the frequency of intense precipitation events [48]. The projection is for longer periods of dryness, punctuated by periods of more intense rainfall.…”

“…Sea level rise will augment the effects of storm surges. Increased precipitation will concentrate in mid-latitude regions, including North America, Europe, and Russia [45,48].…”