Flu, Risks, and Videotape: Escalating Fear and Avoidance

Abstract

While extensive risk perception research has focused on emotions, cognitions, and behavior at static points in time, less attention has been paid to how these variables might change over time. This study assesses how negative affect, threat beliefs, perceived risk, and intended avoidance behavior change over the course of an escalating biological disaster. A scenario simulation methodology was used that presents respondents with a video simulation of a 15-day series of local news reports to immerse respondents in the developing details of the disaster. Systemic manipulation of the virus's causal origin (terrorist attack, medical lab accident, unknown) and the respondent's proximity to the virus (local vs. opposite coast) allowed us to investigate the dynamics of public response. The unfolding scenario was presented in discrete episodes, allowing responses to be tracked over the episodes. The sample includes 600 respondents equally split by sex and by location, with half in the Washington, DC area, and half in the Los Angeles area. The results showed respondents' reactions to the flu epidemic increased as the disaster escalated. More importantly, there was considerable consistency across respondents' emotional, cognitive, and behavioral responses to the epidemic over the episodes. In addition, the reactions of respondents proximally closer to the epidemic increased more rapidly and with greater intensity than their distant counterparts. Finally, as the flu epidemic escalated, both terrorist and accidental flu releases were perceived as being less risky and were less likely to lead to avoidance behavior compared to the unknown flu release.

The Dynamics of Evolving Beliefs, Concerns Emotions, and Behavioral Avoidance Following 9/11: A Longitudinal Analysis of Representative Archival Samples

“…(20,21) Other studies have shown that there is agreement among females and males with respect to the perceived risk of certain hazards, yet each sex is concerned with different aspects of the hazard. (22) Similarly with age, some studies have found that older people tend to have higher risk estimates, (23) whereas others have demonstrated the opposite tendency. (24) Still others have found that there are no discernible differences by age group.…”

Cumulative Response to Sequences of Terror Attacks Varying in Frequency and Trajectory

“…For each of the nine conditions, three videos were created to simulate news broadcasts documenting the attacks over a three‐week period. Video simulations have been used in various experiments and have proven to be convincing . Each video was presented as a news update taking place at one week, two weeks, and three weeks after the first gas station bombing.…”

“…Video simulations have been used in various experiments and have proven to be convincing. (29,30) Each video was presented as a news update taking place at one week, two weeks, and three weeks after the first gas station bombing. A total of 27 videos were developed, three for each of the nine conditions.…”

The Dynamic Nature of Risk Perceptions After a Fatal Transit Accident

“…Following the fatal 1997 Herald Ferry accident outside the Zeebrugge harbor in Belgium, workers not involved in the accident and with no direct ties to accident survivors, relatives of victims, or helpers experienced traumatic stress that declined over time. (33) In contrast to this attenuation of emotive content from a one-time event, Rosoff et al (34) describe increasing perceived risk and affect over time in a simulated biological disaster that escalated over time.…”