For better or worse, in sickness and in health: Australia-China political relations and trade

Golley, Jane; Agarwal, Vishesh; Laurenceson, James; Qiu, Tunye

doi:10.1080/17538963.2022.2117180

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 13 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…It is important to emphasise early on that our analysis is not an attempt to forecast but is merely an assessment of some downside risks, particularly to the Australian economy. We are in agreement with Golley et al (2022), that the trading relationship between China and Australia benefits both economies and that a complete interruption would be both economic and political folly.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 93%

A Bamboo Curtain: The Grim Australian Consequences of China Conflict

Tyers,

Zhou

2023

Australian Economic Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Australian economy has benefited from several decades of extraordinary Chinese expansion. Slowing growth has diminished these gains and geopolitics between China and western democracies has seen restricted commerce between China and Australia. We use a global economic model to assess the consequences were these tensions to restrict all associated commerce, yielding an Australian real GDP contraction of 6 per cent. A ‘bamboo curtain’, restricting all commerce between western democracies and all other regions, would see massive global losses, with Australia's economic welfare impaired most, while some short‐run relief could stem from small‐country monetary ‘free riding’.

show abstract

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 93%

A Bamboo Curtain: The Grim Australian Consequences of China Conflict

Tyers,

Zhou

2023

Australian Economic Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In Golley et al (2022), we disaggregate exports into 20 HS2 sectors, revealing heterogeneous results across sectors-some with significant short-and long-run results, in contrast with the insignificance in the aggregated data. India's results are the most intriguing.…”

Section: Results: 2016-2020mentioning

confidence: 98%

“…In a companion paper (Golley et al 2022), we discuss the theoretical underpinnings of these hypotheses in more detail.…”

Section: Empirical Model Data and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We do not seek to claim that these results provide concrete evidence in support of this hypothesis. Rather, as we have detailed extensively in a companion article focused on the Australia-China relationship (Golley et al 2022), we argue that there is a possibility that when high-level political (in this case, military) relations deteriorate, bureaucrats working behind the scenes in Delhi and Beijing may couple with the determination of Indian companies to ensure that their lucrative access to China's markets are preserved.…”

Section: Concluding Thoughtsmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Disaggregating by five-year subperiods, they find that long-term effects (lasting up to two years) are significant for India and Japan for the subperiod 1998-2002, while in all other subperiods there are no significant effects for any of the Quad countries. Golley et al (2022) conducted a similar study for the period 2001-20, concentrating on Sino-Australian relations, and found no long-run effects of political relations on Australia's aggregate export growth to China. Both these studies also conducted product disaggregated analysis and reported heterogeneous short-run effects across sectors and periods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

China’s Transition to a New Phase of Development

2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

As the world's largest developing country, China is marching towards ambitious climate goals of achieving peak carbon by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Given that China is the largest buyer of Australia's iron ore and one of the largest buyers of Australia's coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), such climate efforts could be expected to impact Australia profoundly. This chapter examines how China's transition to carbon neutrality will affect the Australian economy at the national and state levels and by industry. Our simulation shows that although China's imports of Australian fossil fuels will fall significantly, the impact of those changes on the national economy is negligible. However, the mining sector and those states and territories that rely on fossil fuel production will suffer relatively larger effects.

show abstract

Do Political Relations Colour Chinaʼs Trade With Southeast Asian Partners? A Vector Autoregression Approach

Harrington

2024

Asia & Pacific Policy Stud

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper investigates whether and how export growth to China varies following shocks in bilateral political relations between China and six Southeast Asian countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam—between 2000 and 2019. High‐frequency news data is used to quantify bilateral political relations between each of the six countries and China. Then, a net cooperation index, plus separate indices of political cooperation and conflict, are placed in an augmented gravity model of trade situated in a vector autoregression framework alongside real exchange rate and industrial production variables to examine the short‐ (months) and long‐run (years) effects of shocks to bilateral political relations on each countryʼs exports growth to China. The results reveal that political relations with China played a role in Thailandʼs and Vietnamʼs exports growth to China but not in Indonesiaʼs, Malaysiaʼs, the Philippinesʼ and Singaporeʼs, and contribute new findings to the literature on politics and trade. Code and data for the analysis is available at: https://github.com/tradepolsrepository/tradepols.git.

show abstract

For better or worse, in sickness and in health: Australia-China political relations and trade

Cited by 9 publications

References 13 publications

A Bamboo Curtain: The Grim Australian Consequences of China Conflict

A Bamboo Curtain: The Grim Australian Consequences of China Conflict

China’s Transition to a New Phase of Development

Do Political Relations Colour Chinaʼs Trade With Southeast Asian Partners? A Vector Autoregression Approach

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About