Forced migration in childhood and subsequent fertility: The Karelian displaced population in Finland

Abstract

The family formation consequences of refugee movements is of relevance to international demographic development and for countries accepting forced migrants. Finland provides a unique opportunity to understand the long term effects of involuntary migration on subsequent family formation patterns using population register data.We study individuals who were aged up to 17 years when they were forced to migrate from Finnish Karelia, following the Soviet annexation in the 1940s. There was no migrant selectivity that could affect fertility, and no one had the opportunity to eventually return migrate. For displaced women, but not displaced men, we find that the experience of forced migration in childhood lead to a slightly lower risk of finding a partner, whereas the influence on fertility was small and slightly positive only for men. Forced migrants were more likely to partner with other forced migrants, but we find no robust evidence that partnering behaviour of this kind promotes fertility.

Forced Migration and the Childbearing of Women and Men: A Disruption of the Tempo and Quantum of Fertility?

“…We also pro vide summary sta tis tics in Table A1 (online appen dix), based on the total pop u la tion for cohorts born between 1927 and 1944 (rather than from 1920). This table pro vi des esti ma tes for the whole pop u la tion that are directly com pa ra ble with those pro duced using a sam ple of the pop u la tion in pre vi ous research (Saarela and Skirbekk 2019). We note that our esti ma tes of fer til ity are sim i lar to those pro duced in this ear lier research.…”

“…A detailed descrip tion of the Soviet annex a tion of Finn ish Karelia can be found elsewhere (Haukka et al 2017;Lynch et al 2019;Saarela and Elo 2016;Saarela and Skirbekk 2019). In brief, Finland ceded roughly a tenth of its ter ri tory to the Soviet Union in a peace treaty signed in March 1940.…”

“…Based on stud ies of conflict and fer til ity, it can be predicted that the tim ing of forced migra tion is more likely to have a short-term impact on (the tim ing of) births rather than a long-term impact on com pleted fer til ity (Hill 2004). However, despite a con sid er able lit er a ture on fertil ity in human i tar ian cri ses, relatively few stud ies on forced migra tion and fer til ity exist (Agadjanian 2018;Avogo and Agadjanian 2008;Lynch et al 2019;Randall 2005;Saarela and Skirbekk 2019;Verwimp et al 2020;Verwimp and Van Bavel 2005;Williams et al 2013), and none appear to have focused on the link between age at migra tion and fer til ity, or on the dif fer ences between short-and long-term effects.…”