Forecast of seasonal water availability in Central Asia with near-real time GRACE water storage anomalies

Apel, Heiko; Gouweleeuw, Ben; Gafurov, Abror; Güntner, Andreas

doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ab1681

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Therefore, this study underscores the importance of water stored during the high-flow seasons in modulating streamflow in the low-flow seasons and the great potential of GRACE-based TWSA information in improving streamflow forecasts in mountainous rivers. The GRACE follow-on mission will further enhance the skill of streamflow forecasts and, to some extent, make operational forecasts possible [17]. Understanding the processes linking streamflow, soil moisture, and groundwater would be very valuable in enhancing streamflow forecasting using hydrological models.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Rivers, 2 of 12 fairly reliable streamflow forecasts with 2-3-month lead times were achieved with GRACE TWSA data alone [16]. The important role of GRACE TWSA was further recognized when used in conjunction with meteorological data in seasonal streamflow forecasts in Central Asia [17]. Previous studies indicate that streamflow forecasting during the flood season generally benefited from month-to-month variations in the terrestrial hydrological memory represented by GRACE TWSA.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

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GRACE Satellites Enable Long-Lead Forecasts of Mountain Contributions to Streamflow in the Low-Flow Season

et al. 2021

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Terrestrial water storage (TWS) in high mountain areas contributes large runoff volumes to nearby lowlands during the low-flow season when streamflow is critical to downstream water supplies. The potential for TWS from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites to provide long-lead streamflow forecasting in adjacent lowlands during the low-flow season was assessed using the upper Yellow River as a case study. Two linear models were trained for forecasting monthly streamflow with and without TWS anomaly (TWSA) from 2002 to 2016. Results show that the model based on streamflow and TWSA is superior to the model based on streamflow alone at up to a five-month lead-time. The inclusion of TWSA reduced errors in streamflow forecasts by 25% to 50%, with 3–5-month lead-times, which represents the role of terrestrial hydrologic memory in streamflow changes during the low-flow season. This study underscores the high potential of streamflow forecasting using GRACE data with long lead-times that should improve water management in mountainous water towers and downstream areas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

GRACE Satellites Enable Long-Lead Forecasts of Mountain Contributions to Streamflow in the Low-Flow Season

et al. 2021

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“…With the applications of forecasting techniques, e.g. time series analysis [29], linear regression [30], and artificial neural networks [31], related studies have enriched their explanation for AW. This paper mainly considers uncertainties existing in AW, under the development of RO model, and applies the water life cycle to provide more accurate estimations for AW's nominal value, as a complement of existing literature.…”

Section: Uncertain Programmingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Robust programming for basin-level water allocation with uncertain water availability and policy-driven scenario analysis

Yao

Hou

2021

Complex Intell. Syst.

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Uncertainties from hydrological and meteorological environments constantly pose disturbances to water sustainability. Programming under such uncertainties aims at finding solutions to this risky condition. From the sight of uncertain water availability, this paper builds a water life cycle model to reduce the risks of inappropriate estimations of water availability within a river basin and incorporates the results in robust programming. Then, a policy-driven scenario analysis is conducted to provide managerial implications in terms of ongoing water-saving policies. With Min–Tuo river basin as the case, we finally reach the conclusions that: (1) Equity is a necessity when considering the water allocation in a river basin, which enables a more sustainable mode of local water use. (2) Local citizens’ willingness to follow the policies is a key to relieve the water pressure, while the progress of water-saving techniques could add to its effectiveness.

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“…Such climate-flood linkages lead to 75 periods of above or below average flood peaks and losses (Zanardo et al, 2019). In addition to such climate teleconnections, floods are affected by the catchment wetness in the season ahead (Aguilar et al, 2017, Merz et Seasonal streamflow forecasts are successfully used to inform water resources management, such as securing navigation (Meißner et al, 2017), and managing reservoirs (Turner et al, 2017) and irrigation (Apel et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the use of seasonal forecasts to adapt flood insurance premiums

Nguyen,

Aerts,

Tesselaar

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. Insurance is an important element of flood risk management providing financial compensation after disastrous losses. In a competitive market, insurers need to base their premiums on the most accurate risk estimation. To this end, (recent) historic loss data is used. However, climate variability can substantially affect flood risk, and anticipating such variations could provide a competitive gain. For instance, for a year with higher flood probabilities, the insurer might raise premiums to hedge against the increased risk or communicate the increased risk to policyholders encouraging risk-reduction measures. In this explorative study, we investigate how seasonal flood forecasts could be used to adapt flood insurance premiums on an annual basis. In an application for Germany, we apply a forecasting method that predicts winter flood probability distributions conditioned on the catchment wetness in the season ahead. The deviation from the long-term is used to calculate deviations in Expected Annual Damage which serve as input into an insurance model to compute deviations in household insurance premiums for the upcoming year. Our study suggests that the temporal variations in flood probabilities are substantial, leading to significant variations in flood risk and premiums. As our models are based on a range of assumptions and as the skill of seasonal flood forecasts is still limited, particularly in Central Europe, our study is seen as first demonstration of how seasonal forecasting could be combined with risk and insurance models to inform the (re-)insurance sector about upcoming changes in risk.

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Forecast of seasonal water availability in Central Asia with near-real time GRACE water storage anomalies

Cited by 8 publications

References 16 publications

GRACE Satellites Enable Long-Lead Forecasts of Mountain Contributions to Streamflow in the Low-Flow Season

GRACE Satellites Enable Long-Lead Forecasts of Mountain Contributions to Streamflow in the Low-Flow Season

Robust programming for basin-level water allocation with uncertain water availability and policy-driven scenario analysis

Exploring the use of seasonal forecasts to adapt flood insurance premiums

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