Forecasting and leader performance: Objective cognition in a socio-organizational context

Abstract

Editor: M. MumfordTraditionally, it has been assumed that leaders, like other people, are typically poor at forecasting. In the present effort, we argue that people can sometimes prove effective at forecasting and that effective forecasting is particularly important to performance in leadership roles. Subsequently, evidence bearing on how four key variables, mental models, objectivity, time frame, and case content, influence the effectiveness of leader forecasting is examined along with interventions that might contribute to effective forecasting on the part of leaders. The implications of these observations for understanding leader cognition are discussed.

The data-driven leader: developing a big data analytics leadership competency framework

“…, 2010), monitoring skills (Mintzberg, 1973), strategic skills (Mumford et al. , 2007), forecasting skills (Mumford et al. , 2015), resource allocator (Mintzberg, 1973), social perceptiveness (Zaccaro et al.…”

“…• Pattern recognition (Boyatzis, 2011;Johansen, 2009) • KPI development (Marr, 2012) • Disseminator (Mintzberg, 1973) • Business skills (Mumford et al, 2007) • Learning ability (Yukl, 2013) • Open-mindedness (Hern andez-Mogollon et al, 2010) • Monitoring skills (Mintzberg, 1973) • Strategic skills (Mumford et al, 2007) • Forecasting skills (Mumford et al, 2015) • Resource allocator (Mintzberg, 1973) • Social perceptiveness (Zaccaro et al, 1991) • Communication skills (Katz, 1955) • Knowledge sharing (Srivastava et al, 2006) • Liaison (Mintzberg, 1973) • Role model (Redman, 2013;Spencer and Spencer, 1993) • Facilitating collective learning (Yukl, 2012) • Empathy (Bass and Stogdill, 1990;Boyatzis, 2011) • Contingent rewarding (Bass and Avolio, 1994) • Statistical skills (Anderson, 2015) • Technical infrastructure management skills (Kim et al, 2012) • Skills in BDA tools and software (Akter et al, 2016;Mikalef et al, 2018a,b) • Experimental design (McAfee and Brynjolfsson, 2012) • Storytelling skills (Davenport and Patil, 2012) • Data visualization skills (Ahmad et al, 2016;Mikalef et al, 2018a,b) • Building data-driven talent (Davenport and Patil, 2012) Source(s): Author's own creation Table 3.…”

Taking the good with the bad: The impact of forecasting timing and valence on idea evaluation and creativity.

“…Another condition of forecasting, timing, may increase performance on forecasting, idea evaluation, and creative problem solving. Because forecasting is a cognitively demanding and resource intensive process (Mumford, Steele, McIntosh, & Mulhearn, 2015), the timing in which forecasting occurs during the generative and evaluative stages of the creative process may reduce these demands, thereby improving creative performance (Mumford, Mobley, Uhlman, Reiter-Palmon, & Doares, 1991). Because idea generation and evaluation are iterative processes (Basadur, Runco, & Vega, 2000), incorporating forecasting activities during different time points may differentially impact forecasting performance itself, in addition to idea evaluation and creative performance.…”

Bias and Bias Remediation in Creative Problem-Solving: Managing Biases through Forecasting

“…A key activity that may lead people to invest greater cognitive resrouces in creative problem-solving is forecasting. Forecasting relates to the projection of the downstream consequences of actions or ideas, and it has been found to influence the quality of peoples' performance in multiple domains, including leader problem-solving (Mumford, Steele, McIntosh, & Mulhearn, 2015) and ethical decision-making (Stenmark, Antes, Wang, Caughron, Thiel, & Mumford, 2010). Forecasting has also been found to influence the success of peoples' creative problem-solving efforts.…”

“…As discussed above, effective forecasting may directly affect peoples' creative problem-solving by encouraging more extensive elaboration of initial ideas (Mumford, Steele, McIntosh, & Mulhearn, 2015). However, forecasting may have another effect with respect to biases.…”