Forecasting effectiveness of policy implementation strategies: working with semi‐experts

Abstract

Purpose -Policy implementation strategies (PIS) are schemes designed by a government with an aim of hitting targets or attaining objectives set out by a policy. Forecasting by analogies (FBA) has been shown to be successful in situations of high uncertainty and low quantitative data as is that of PIS effectiveness forecasts. What is more, a structured approach to FBA helps the expert structure his thoughts in an organized manner before making a prediction, which is hypothesized to improve accuracy. This paper aims to discuss these issues.Design/methodology/approach -This research suggests a semi-structured analogies (S-SA) approach for such a task. A pilot experiment was carried to test the performance of the S-SA approach in the hands of semi-experts when compared with unaided judgment (UJ).Findings -The results of the experiment showed that for this level of expertise, there is no statistical evidence to suggest any approach is better than the other. Possible explanations of this result is that analogy recall of experts was hindered by four constructs: information, complexity, worldview, and expertise. It was concluded that the structured analogies approach for forecasting PIS effectiveness must be investigated further by means of a study involving ''true experts''.Research limitations/implications -The sample sizes were small. Practical implications -Forecasting PIS effectiveness is seen as an important tool for deciding upon which PIS to ultimately adopt (as there may be many available!) and this then has important implications for governmental budgeting.Originality/value -The paper offers further insight into the performance of a structured analogies approach to forecasting PIS effectiveness in the hands of individuals with a mid-level of expertise.

Relative performance of judgmental methods for forecasting the success of megaprojects

“…Following the classification of the Savio and Nikolopoulos studies (2010, 2009b, 2013 In total -from a class of 69 experienced and excellently educated students -53 responded positively to the call and participated in the research. These semi-experts were sourced from a wide variety of sectors, including academia, industry, financial services and consultancy firms; all however were of south-east Asian origin and almost all were raised in India.…”

“…Analogies (s-SA, Savio & Nikolopoulos, 2013;2009a;2009b) was implemented. In this approach, similarity ratings and outcomes are not used by the administrator to generate forecasts because the final forecasts are produced by the semi-experts.…”

Access to Health in Border Areas: Literature Review

“…Improving access is the main goal of current health policy, but a clear understanding of equal access is needed so that operational policies can be developed properly. Forecasting the effectiveness of policy implementation strategies becomes an important tool in choosing the strategy to be adopted, with important implications for government policy and budgeting (Savio & Nikolopoulos, 2009).…”

Ολοκληρωμένη μεθοδολογία και πληροφοριακό σύστημα παραγωγής πρoβλέψεων για τις δράσεις της ψηφιακής στρατηγικής στην Ελλάδα

“…Θ υιοκζτθςθ μιασ δομθμζνθσ προςζγγιςθσ ςε ςυνδυαςμό με τθν πείρα των ειδικϊν κεωρείται ωσ ο καλφτεροσ τρόποσ για να υπερνικθκοφν οι περιοριςμοί που προκφπτουν από τθν απλι πρόβλεψθ (Savio & Nikolopoulos, 2009a). Ψζτοιου είδουσ προβλζψεισ μποροφν να περιλαμβάνουν τθν αβοικθτθ κρίςθ, τθν τεχνικι Delphi, τθν πρόβλεψθ με αναλογίεσ αλλά και τισ ομαδικζσ προβλζψεισ.…”

“…Θ μζκοδοσ των θμι-Δομθμζνων Αναλογιϊν αποτελεί ςτθν ουςία μια τροποποίθςθ τθσ κλαςικισ μεκόδου των Δομθμζνων Αναλογιϊν που πρότειναν οι Green και Armstrong. Εμπειρικζσ μελζτεσ(Savio & Nikolopoulos, 2009a) κατζδειξαν ότι ςε αρκετζσ περιπτϊςεισ προβλθμάτων πρόβλεψθσ τα αποτελζςματα των αναλογιϊν που μνθμονεφτθκαν ιταν εξαιρετικά δφςκολο να ανακλθκοφν ςτθ μνιμθ. Γι' αυτό δθμιουργικθκε θ θμι-Δομθμζνθ μζκοδοσ όπου οι ειδικοί, όπωσ και ςτθν κλαςικι μζκοδο, υποβοθκοφνται ςτο να δομιςουν τθ ςκζψθ τουσ με τθν ανάκλθςθ και καταγραφι αναλογιϊν.…”