Forecasting for recreational fisheries management: a derby fishery case study with Gulf of Mexico Red Snapper

Abstract

In a derby fishery, anglers race to catch as many fish as possible during a limited season. To meet legal mandates to prevent overfishing, forecasting accuracy is paramount. Red Snapper is among the most prized species in the US Gulf of Mexico and represents a politically charged derby fishery case study. We describe the management considerations, data, methods, and specialized statistical forecasting approaches used to estimate recreational component season lengths to maximize fishing opportunities while meeting mandates to constrain catch below legal limits. Retrospective analysis of model predictions for 2013–2017 indicated mean prediction error of 2626 ± 13 231, 3014 ± 15 744, and 42 975 ± 132 032 pounds whole weight per open day for charter, headboat, and private mode catch rates, respectively. Forecasting results using generalized linear models indicated that the annual harvest for 2017 would be caught in 2 d for the private angling component with an 18% probability of exceeding the component quota. The federal for-hire (charter and headboat) component season was estimated to be 48 d, with a 5% probability of exceeding the component quota. There is a broad scientific and management interest in identifying strategies to continue rebuilding the stock while increasing stakeholder access.

Source–sink recruitment of red snapper: Connectivity between the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean

“…In 2005, the Gulf Council established a new rebuilding plan for red snapper, which included dramatically reduced catch limits, a recreational bag limit, a commercial individual fishing quota program, and controls on shrimp trawl fishing effort to reduce red snapper bycatch. Since the implementation of these additional management measures, red snapper fishing mortality has been reduced to levels below the limit set by managers, the stock size has increased, and the average size in the catch has doubled (Farmer et al, 2020). As of 2018, the stock had not yet recovered to its optimal population size but was considered no longer overfished or undergoing overfishing, and red snapper had repopulated much of the West Florida Shelf where it had previously been heavily overexploited (SEDAR, 2018).…”

Understanding and Enhancing Angler Satisfaction with Fisheries Management: Insights from the “Great Red Snapper Count”

“…Compounding the problem, a 2014 federal court ruling requiring greater accountability measures in the fishery led to the implementation of more conservative annual catch targets. In subsequent years, recreational fishing seasons in federal waters were as short as 3 to 4 d. However, studies of angler behavior revealed that the shorter seasons did not proportionally reduce catches, instead promoting “derby‐style fishing” and worsening perceptions of angler dissatisfaction (Powers and Anson 2016; Farmer et al 2019). In recent years, recreational season lengths have been extended and landings for Red Snapper have been at all‐time highs, collectively providing a major source of concern and conflict within the fishery.…”

Geostatistical tools to assess shifts in recreational fishing

“…These spatial indices, along with probability maps of released CPUE hotspots, suggest that the Abrolhos Islands are an isolated case where there is potential scope for targeted spatial management, given individual reporting of access to the fishery at the Abrolhos Islands is mandatory. An example of this type of management challenge can be seen in the Gulf of Mexico, where the declining health of the red snapper fishery is attributed to the derby-style behaviour of fishers, where they compete to attain high harvest levels before seasonal closures (Hackett et al 2005;Smith et al 2009;Farmer et al 2020). Bag limits and seasonal closures alone have proven ineffective for a derby-style fishery, as effort compression can lead to higher CPUE, resulting in high released CPUE.…”