In a derby fishery, anglers race to catch as many fish as possible during a limited season. To meet legal mandates to prevent overfishing, forecasting accuracy is paramount. Red Snapper is among the most prized species in the US Gulf of Mexico and represents a politically charged derby fishery case study. We describe the management considerations, data, methods, and specialized statistical forecasting approaches used to estimate recreational component season lengths to maximize fishing opportunities while meeting mandates to constrain catch below legal limits. Retrospective analysis of model predictions for 2013–2017 indicated mean prediction error of 2626 ± 13 231, 3014 ± 15 744, and 42 975 ± 132 032 pounds whole weight per open day for charter, headboat, and private mode catch rates, respectively. Forecasting results using generalized linear models indicated that the annual harvest for 2017 would be caught in 2 d for the private angling component with an 18% probability of exceeding the component quota. The federal for-hire (charter and headboat) component season was estimated to be 48 d, with a 5% probability of exceeding the component quota. There is a broad scientific and management interest in identifying strategies to continue rebuilding the stock while increasing stakeholder access.

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The Gag Mycteroperca microlepis is one of the most popular reef fish targeted by anglers fishing in the Gulf of Mexico. Around 7% of all trips by private boat anglers fishing from the west coast of Florida in 2019 targeted Gag during the open season. We conducted a survey of private boat anglers in Florida and estimated a statistical model to predict changes in the number of fishing trips anticipated with changes in trip costs and Gag bag limits. We found that for the average angler, the economic value of each private boat trip is around US$200 and that a $10 increase in trip costs would decrease private boat fishing trips by 5%. We also found that, on average, private boat anglers targeting Gag would take 12% more trips if the bag limit was increased by one fish from the current bag limit of two fish. The results of our study will help to anticipate the extent to which recreational fishing effort and value could change when trip costs and Gag regulations change.

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Recreational fishing (RF) is a large yet undervalued component of fisheries globally. While progress has been made in monitoring, assessing, and managing the sector in isolation, integration of RF into the management of multi‐sector fisheries has been limited, particularly relative to the commercial sector. This marginalises recreational fishers and reduces the likelihood of achieving the sector's objectives and, more broadly, achieving fisheries sustainability. We examined the nature and extent of RF inclusion in harvest strategies (HSs) for marine fisheries across 15 regions in 11 nations to define the gap in inclusion that has developed between sectors. We focused on high‐income nations with a high level of RF governance and used a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge on HSs due to the paucity of published documents. In total, 339 HSs were considered. We found that RF inclusion in HSs was more similar to the small‐scale sector (i.e., artisanal, cultural, or subsistence) than the commercial sector, with explicit operational objectives, data collection, performance indicators, reference points, and management controls lacking in many regions. Where specified, RF objectives focused on sustainability, economic value and catch allocation rather than directly relating to the recreational fishing experience. Conflicts with other sectors included competition with the commercial sector for limited resources, highlighting the importance of equitable resource allocation policies alongside HSs. We propose that RF be explicitly incorporated into HSs to ensure fisheries are ecologically, economically, and socially sustainable, and we recommend that fisheries organisations urgently review HSs for marine fisheries with a recreational component to close the harvest strategy gap among sectors.