Forecasting Global Developments and Challenges in Olive Oil Supply and Demand: A Delphi Survey from Spain

Abstract

Forecasting future supply and demand is a topical subject in the olive oil sector due to its relevance for decision making and the lack of comprehensive and consensual estimates at the global level. This study aims at overcoming this gap in research by providing a foresight of global supply and demand for olive oil for the years to come. We use the Delphi technique to estimate the expected annual growth rates in the olive oil production and consumption worldwide as well as their likely impact on Spanish exports by 2025. Another key objective of the study is to elicit expert judgements on the factors that are likely to shape the predicted changes as well as the international challenges ahead. Results suggest substantial future increases in production in new-producing countries, in parallel with a slower growth in the European traditional suppliers whose focus will increasingly be placed on quality and sustainability rather than quantity. In addition, a significant growth in the world’s demand for olive oil is expected in non-traditional markets, which will be driven by greater awareness of the positive health and sustainability attributes of this product, jointly with the changes in lifestyles and rising incomes of several consumer segments. These emerging markets offer promising prospects for the international expansion of olive oil companies. Future international challenges facing the olive oil industry include new market entry, worldwide product promotion, quality standards’ harmonization, enacting trade facilitation schemes, and dealing with the COVID-19 impacts. Findings improve market predictability and transparency, and ultimately support decision-making and strategic planning in the olive oil sector.

The performance of the Tunisian olive oil exports within the new distribution of world demand

“…In order to improve its competitiveness, Tunisia must capture the growing global demand for olive oil by improving its image as a country producer and exporter of olive oil and work on the quality competitiveness which has shown its effectiveness on the Canadian market, Japan where exports are fully packaged and virgin or extra virgin quality. These countries have been occupying an increasing share in the world consumption of olive oil in the recent years and hold a strong potential for consumption growth in the future (Mili and Bouhaddane, 2021), which made them as potential attractive markets to the Tunisian olive oil. Consequently, to distinguish itself on foreign markets, Tunisia should focus more on exports of packaged products and brand.…”

“…Likewise, organic olive oil could be also a force to face competition from European countries and the new olive oil producing countries which are growing more and more. In fact, as concluded by Mili and Bouhaddane (2021), demand will be prompted by the shift in consumption habits towards healthier and more natural products, and to a lesser degree by preference towards more differentiated products such as organic olive oil and oils with indications of origin.The launch of the "Bio Tunisia" label in 2010, the efforts to create AOCs in Tunisia and the respect of increasingly demanding international quality standards as well as the packaging and orientation towards flavored olive oil and its stabilization by aromatic and medicinal plants, could constitute a solution to widen the markets of destination and to offer to Tunisian olive oil an identity which is singular and unique.…”

Change in Oil Composition and the Major Fatty Acids and Triacylglycerol Biosynthesis Genes in Drupe of Selected Olive Cultivars during Growing Season; A Two Years Study

“…[5] As a result of increasing public consciousness about the health promoting substances of olive oil and its role against cardiovascular disease, cancer, and several types of diabetes, the consumption and production of olive oil in the world has experienced a progressive growth over the past 2 decades and even more olive demand was estimated for the future. [6] Although the plant genotype is considered as the most important factor in relation to the quality and quantity of olive oil, the climatic conditions and seasonal changes are among the external factors affecting the properties of olive oil. [7] Several works have addressed the seasonal changes of olive oils and the response of different olive cultivars to various environmental factors.…”

The Influence of an Export Manager on Export Marketing Policies: Evidence from Exporting Olive Oil Companies in Crete

“…Furthermore, in a scenario in which international trade recovers from the impacts of Covid-19 relatively quickly, olive oil demand could increase to the point that global exports could increase as well (Mili and Bouhaddane 2021). According to the European Commission, this is anticipated, with olive oil holding a much larger share of available oil.…”