Agriculture is increasingly facing major challenges such as climate change, scarcity of natural resources and changing societal demands. To tackle these challenges there is a pressing need to evolve towards more sustainable agricultural practices. As a result, sustainability stands among the most relevant topics in agricultural research worldwide, and Spain is no exception. Agricultural sustainability has been analysed in Spain mainly at a national and farm scale. This contribution aims at assessing agricultural sustainability in Spain at a provincial scale, allowing the scrutiny of regional variability induced by the existing differences in extension, relevance and policies of the agricultural activity at this level. The sustainability assessment performed is based on a selection of twenty-two indicators covering the three classical dimensions of sustainability—environmental, economic and social. The methodology implemented is based on normalising and aggregating selected indicators according to three composite indicators for the fifty Spanish provinces. Numerous statistical and cartographic sources are used. Cluster analysis establishes four different groups of provinces according to their performance in terms of agricultural sustainability. Higher economic sustainability in provincial agriculture seems to be mostly associated with more intensive use of agricultural labour and agricultural machinery and faster wealth growth. Social sustainability seems to be linked to greater diversification of economic activities and to quality productions under Protected Designations of Origin (PDO) and Protected Geographical Indications (PGI). Best environmental sustainability is achieved where extension of agricultural land is larger, less agricultural area is burned, and carbon stock and sequestration by agricultural ecosystems is better. It is expected that the results could improve the policy coherence and decision-making for more sustainable agricultural systems in Spanish regions.

This article forecasts the main trends and likely developments affecting the Spanish olive oil export business over the next decade. A Delphi survey was conducted in 1999 with a highlyqualified panel of experts from the olive oil sector who, over two rounds of mailings, contributed their judgments about export prospects for the Spanish olive oil sector. Issues discussed include expected trends in world olive oil supply and demand, the likely implications of the major impending changes in the macroeconomic and regulatory setting, the characteristics of potential markets, the strengths and weaknesses of the Spanish olive oil export industry, and the key international marketing variables for the future. [EconLit citations: F140, Q130, Q170].

Forecasting future supply and demand is a topical subject in the olive oil sector due to its relevance for decision making and the lack of comprehensive and consensual estimates at the global level. This study aims at overcoming this gap in research by providing a foresight of global supply and demand for olive oil for the years to come. We use the Delphi technique to estimate the expected annual growth rates in the olive oil production and consumption worldwide as well as their likely impact on Spanish exports by 2025. Another key objective of the study is to elicit expert judgements on the factors that are likely to shape the predicted changes as well as the international challenges ahead. Results suggest substantial future increases in production in new-producing countries, in parallel with a slower growth in the European traditional suppliers whose focus will increasingly be placed on quality and sustainability rather than quantity. In addition, a significant growth in the world’s demand for olive oil is expected in non-traditional markets, which will be driven by greater awareness of the positive health and sustainability attributes of this product, jointly with the changes in lifestyles and rising incomes of several consumer segments. These emerging markets offer promising prospects for the international expansion of olive oil companies. Future international challenges facing the olive oil industry include new market entry, worldwide product promotion, quality standards’ harmonization, enacting trade facilitation schemes, and dealing with the COVID-19 impacts. Findings improve market predictability and transparency, and ultimately support decision-making and strategic planning in the olive oil sector.