Forecasting hourly electricity demand of Uruguay for the next day using artificial neural networks

Porteiro, Rodrigo; Nesmachnow, Sergio

doi:10.1109/tdla47668.2020.9326206

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The cost of coal was about MYR 250 per metric ton when the ICPT was introduced. The cost of coal had risen to more than MYR 370 per metric ton at the beginning of 2018 [9]. That indicates a 47% increase in price.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Single Buyer Model of Imbalance Cost Pass-Through Pricing Forecasting under Malaysia Electricity Supply Industry

Khairuddin,

Zaini,

Sulaima

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The Imbalance Cost Pass-Through (ICPT) is a flexible component of the Incentive Regulation (IBR) that empowers power producers to adjust tariffs in response to variable fuel prices, thereby enhancing the economic resilience of electricity generation. However, the cost of electricity generation is significantly influenced by the volatility of commodity prices, including coal, gas and LNG. In Malaysia, the Energy Commission has conducted biannual reviews of fuel and other generation costs. Any cost savings or increases identified during these reviews will be passed on to customers in the form of rebates or surcharges. Due to that reason, this study proposes ICPT price forecasting for the electricity market in Peninsular Malaysia. The study aims to construct an ICPT-related baseline model for the peninsular generation data by employing three forecasting methods. The forecasting performance is analysed by a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). In findings, the ARIMA method is one of the most accurate forecasting methods for fuel prices compared to the Moving Average (MA) and LSSVM methods. The observed price differences between the ARIMA and LSSVM models for ICPT are minimal. The ICPT price for July-December 2022 and January-June 2023 is MYR 0.21/ kWh for ARIMA and MYR 0.18/kWh for LSSVM, which are close to the actual TNB’s ICPT tariff. As for the forecasting, the ICPT price is expected to drop for the next announcement. The findings of this study may contribute to a positive impact on the sustainability of the energy sector in Malaysia.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Single Buyer Model of Imbalance Cost Pass-Through Pricing Forecasting under Malaysia Electricity Supply Industry

Khairuddin,

Zaini,

Sulaima

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The cost of coal was about MYR 250 per metric ton when the ICPT was introduced. The cost of coal had risen to more than MYR 370 per metric ton by the beginning of 2018 [9], a 47% increase in price. Since the ICPT price depends on the fuel price and other generation costs, the Energy Commission will conduct biannual reviews with any cost savings or increases identified during these reviews will be passed on to customers in the form of rebates or surcharges.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Single-Buyer Model of Imbalance Cost Pass-Through Pricing Forecasting in the Malaysian Electricity Supply Industry

Khairuddin,

Zaini,

Sulaima

et al. 2024

Electricity

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The imbalance cost pass-through (ICPT) is a flexible component of the incentive-based regulation (IBR) that empowers power producers to adjust tariffs in response to variable fuel prices, thereby enhancing the economic resilience of electricity generation. In Malaysia, the Energy Commission has conducted biannual reviews of fuel and other generation costs. Any cost savings or increases identified during these reviews will be passed on to customers in the form of rebates or surcharges. Meanwhile, if an increment in the ICPT price signal can be provided to electricity providers and consumers, early preparation for operation budgeting can be realised, and energy management program development can be properly prepared. Due to this reason, this study proposes ICPT price forecasting for the electricity market in Peninsular Malaysia that will benefit the stakeholders. The study aims to construct an ICPT-related baseline model for the peninsular generation data by employing three forecasting methods. The forecasting performance is analysed using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). In light of our findings, the ARIMA method is one of the most accurate forecasting methods for fuel prices compared to the moving average (MA) and LSSVM methods. The observed price differences between the ARIMA and LSSVM models for ICPT are minimal. The ICPT price for July–December 2022 and January–June 2023 is MYR 0.21/kWh for the ARIMA and MYR 0.18/kWh for LSSVM, which are close to the actual TNB’s ICPT tariff. As for forecasting, the ICPT price is expected to drop in the next announcement. The findings of this study may have a positive impact on the sustainability of the energy sector in Malaysia.

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A Systematic Literature Review of Electricity Load Forecasting using Long Short-Term Memory

Salleh

Suliman

Jôrgensen

2022

Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering

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Forecasting hourly electricity demand of Uruguay for the next day using artificial neural networks

Cited by 3 publications

References 11 publications

A Single Buyer Model of Imbalance Cost Pass-Through Pricing Forecasting under Malaysia Electricity Supply Industry

A Single Buyer Model of Imbalance Cost Pass-Through Pricing Forecasting under Malaysia Electricity Supply Industry

A Single-Buyer Model of Imbalance Cost Pass-Through Pricing Forecasting in the Malaysian Electricity Supply Industry

A Systematic Literature Review of Electricity Load Forecasting using Long Short-Term Memory

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