Forecasting: its role and value for planning and strategy

Makridakis, Spyros

doi:10.1016/s0169-2070(96)00677-2

Cited by 58 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…These predictions support the strategic decisions of organizations [10], which in turn sustains practical interest in forecasting methods. Several methods -both causal and non-causal -have been proposed to forecast such variable behavior.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 60%

Time series forecasting with a non-linear model and the scatter search meta-heuristic

Silva

2008

Information Sciences

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 60%

Time series forecasting with a non-linear model and the scatter search meta-heuristic

Silva

2008

Information Sciences

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“…The main focus of this article is on predicting the effectiveness of PISs, as such forecasts are recognized to be important and beneficial to decision making (Wright & Goodwin (2009), Makridakis (1996)). What's more, such performance measurement can be used a means for the long-term improvement of the public policy process.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Effectiveness of Policy Implementation Strategies

Savio

Νικολόπουλος

2010

International Journal of Public Administration

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“…Analyses of time series data are appropriate when the series of data are correlated [64,65] and exhibit predictive effectiveness in several scientific areas of study [66], which renders them extremely helpful for organizations when making strategic decisions [67] or in the context of marketing as related to market share, investments in new products or promotional campaigns [68].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Evolution of Sports Federation Membership: AnImportant Tool to Asses National Governing Bodies’ Strategic Planning

Camps¹,

Pappous²

2016

JSS

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Abstract:Quantifying the potential market of sports licenses is key in order for National Governing Bodies of sport (NGBs) to be able to design good strategic planning. We compared the classical methods of univariate prediction and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methods. Reliability of the available data was verified with the Time Series Regression with ARIMA Noise, Missing and Outliers (TRAMO) method, and the existence of a trend was verified using Daniel's test. For the purposes of this study-the researches collected and analysed secondary data from a 40-year series in 45 sports in Spain covering a very long period of time in a variety of sport disciplines. The study shows that, with the available data, short-and mid-term forecasting is possible in a number of sports, but not in all of them. It also proves that Holt's classical method of exponential smoothing is the one that yields best results. Golf, Basketball, Athletics and Hunting NGB show worrying prospects of decline levels and need an immediate change in the strategic plans. Other than for forecasting the evolution of athletes in the mid-term in order to improve strategic planning in NGBs, the present findings can be useful for public authorities to define their aid policies for NGBs, and they can also help companies in the industry to anticipate market developments.

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Forecasting: its role and value for planning and strategy

Cited by 58 publications

References 13 publications

Time series forecasting with a non-linear model and the scatter search meta-heuristic

Time series forecasting with a non-linear model and the scatter search meta-heuristic

Forecasting the Effectiveness of Policy Implementation Strategies

Predicting the Evolution of Sports Federation Membership: AnImportant Tool to Asses National Governing Bodies’ Strategic Planning

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