Forecasting Models for the German Office Market

Bönner, Alexander

doi:10.1007/978-3-8349-9402-8

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 68 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Multivariate forecasting models attempt to explain changes in a variable by references to the movements in the current or past values of other (explanatory) variables. Whereas, univariate forecasting models constitute a class of specifications in which one attempts to model and to predict time series variables using only information contained in their own past values and current and, possibly, past values of an error term (Brooks and Tsolacos, 2010;Bönner, 2009).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting future trends in Dubai housing market by using Box‐Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average

Hepşen

Vatansever

2011

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose -It is important to forecast index series to identify future rises, falls, and turning points in the property market. From the point of this necessity and importance, the main purpose of this paper is to forecast the future trends in Dubai housing market. Design/methodology/approach -This paper uses the monthly time series of Reidin.com Dubai Residential Property Price Index (DRPPI) data. In order to forecast the future trends in Dubai housing market, Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting method is utilized. Findings -The results of the ARIMA modeling clearly indicate that average monthly percentage increase in the Reidin.com DRPPI will be 0.23 percent during the period January 2011-December 2011. That is a 2.44 percent increase in the index for the same period. Practical implications -Reidin.com residential property price index is a crucial tool to measure Dubai's real estate market. Based on the current index values or past trend, real estate investors (i.e. developers and constructors) decide to start new projects. Attempts have also been made in the past to forecast index series to identify future rises, falls, and turning points in the property market. The results of this paper would also help government and property investors for creating more effective property management strategies in Dubai. Originality/value -There is no previous study analyzing the future trends in Dubai housing market. At this point, the paper is the first academic study that identifies this relationship.

show abstract

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting future trends in Dubai housing market by using Box‐Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average

Hepşen

Vatansever

2011

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…After that, Kim (2006) sustained that Wheaton's model, tested with data sets, proved useful to forecast accurately the US office market in the 1990s. Bonner (2009) pointed out the successful application of the US literature-based model by Tsolacos et al (1998) to the UK office market. Mainly in what concerns to the GDP and general employment correlation to the rental adjustments over time.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

São Paulo’s office market: scenario for the next years

Alencar

Lima

Monetti

2017

JFMPC

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to simulate possoble scenarios of São Paulo’s office market recovering. In 2006, a previous paper that dealt with the same issue was published which the authors propose to analyse here. After eight years, the São Paulo office market is starting a new phase within its cycle. Then, the first part of this paper, as in Rocha-Lima and Alencar (2006), describes the economic scenario in which investment decisions are made for developing office buildings in the Brazilian market. Afterward, the authors simulated both the necessary period of time for investments in the São Paulo office market to recover attractiveness and time for the increase in the occupation rate to absorb the current vacant spaces. Design/methodology/approach These simulations were carried out using simple linear regressions models using the Brazilian gross domestic product (GDP) as explanatory variable to prices and vacancy rates dependent ones. Findings The authors have found that the vacant space can be fully re-occupied in the beginning of 2021 or mid of 2022, according to the GDP growth rate, and, from this moment on, the demand for new spaces may grow, and, moreover around 2019, investments may become attractive again in this market. Originality/value This paper offers an alternative approach for estimating office building scenarios, especially when the database of the market is scarce. It also permits to evaluate an investment strategy for emerging markets within next years, particularly in São Paulo, Brazil.

show abstract

“…Real estate markets have some specifics that distinguish them from other economic markets. Among these specifics are (Bönner, 2009): market inefficiencies and cycles. The former specific includes four criteria: immobility, heterogeneity, illiquidity, and high transaction costs.…”

Section: Real Estate Market Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling housing supply and demand using system dynamics

Marzouk

Hosny

2016

HCS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose The housing sector in Egypt represents a considerable share of the gross domestic product (GDP) and accordingly the economy. Further, it is considered vital for any population around the world, because it provides the shelter needed by people. Egyptian housing market is facing many problems which need to be solved. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach This research reviews and analyzes the Egyptian public and private housing market’s key variables. As such, it highlights the importance of informed decision making through detailed analysis and study of the market, especially when planning for the future by any housing market stakeholder. The research proposes the use of system dynamics (SD) modeling to analyze the market by creating a stock and flow model using STELLA modeling and simulation software. Findings The results reveal that the expected newly established families will be nearly 800,000 families in year 2015/2016. Out of these numbers, 600,000 families require economic housing units, while the expected supply is nearly 300,000 units. Originality/value A study is made for the economic housing market, which is a very big housing market and population segment that has been suffering from negligence for years.

show abstract

Forecasting Models for the German Office Market

Cited by 3 publications

References 68 publications

Forecasting future trends in Dubai housing market by using Box‐Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average

Forecasting future trends in Dubai housing market by using Box‐Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average

São Paulo’s office market: scenario for the next years

Modeling housing supply and demand using system dynamics

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About